Mound Talk

I was able to watch a couple Texas games (thanks Dish Network) in the last week. The two most interesting players on the Longhorns team are Jordan Danks and Kyle Russell. Both of these guys project to be first round draft picks in the 2008 MLB Draft. As I’ve done with other college players, I will offer my thoughts on each player in a rougher report. I have received several emails (koby.schellenger@moundtalk.com) as to why I don’t do a full report. The main reason is that I’m watching these games on television. Therefore, I have less knowledge of the players and am limited to only what is shown by the cameras. I could do fuller reports but they would not be as accurate & I would prefer to put more effort into the guys I’m seeing live in the minors. Also, I’m focusing a lot of time on the college side of things on the draft.

Jordan Danks

Jordan Danks is the younger brother of White Sox pitcher John Danks. He was a first round talent coming out of high school but had a strong commitment to Texas that caused him to drop. Danks is a 6-foot-5, 205 pound outfielder. He is NOT a true five-tool player, as many would lead you to believe.

At The Plate
Everything about Danks at the plate is in control. He has a short stroke, short step forward, easy & compact swing. He has a good eye and is able to slow his bat down on off-speed pitches. For this reason, Danks is able to draw a lot of walks and avoid strikeouts. Danks is the kind of guy who will hit for good average and draw a lot of walks.

Danks has the ability to hit for power. Despite his low power numbers in college, Danks does have ok power at the present. Texas is a larger college ballpark & Danks has room to fill out. He has a nice frame and a pretty good power stroke. He is good gap-to-gap and some of his doubles will turn into home runs. Ultimately, he’s a guy that could hit 20 home runs in a season but he isn’t there yet.

Baserunning
Danks is a very quick athlete and it shows on the bases. He’s capable of stealing as many bases as he wants. He rarely gets caught because his speed and quickness allow him a larger lead from first & he gets to second very fast. He’s a heads-up baserunner. During the three games I watched, he aggressively took two extra bases that most runners would not have been able to take.

Defense
Along with his excellent speed on the bases, Danks utilizes his speed well in the field. He is one of the more rangy college outfielders I’ve seen in a while. However, I question his arm strength. I would not hesitate calling it poor. I remember a lot of talk about his arm being strong when he was coming out of high school so I was quite surprised to see his arm strength as poor as it was.

Concluding Comments & Draft Status
My first thoughts on Danks were that he’s a low risk investment. His speed and range in centerfield will keep him moving, even if his bat doesn’t play well with the wood bat. He reminded me of Jacoby Ellsbury in terms of skillset after the first game I saw but I think Danks is going to be a higher OBP player with a little less range, similar arm & more power.

Danks makes a lot of sense for a few teams in the second half of the first round. If a team can get him in for some A-ball this summer, I think he’s a guy who might make an MLB debut in early 2010. There will be more analysis of where he’ll go as I fire up some draft preview later this week but he’s a good fit for a team like Colorado. A rangy outfielder in that park would help the Rockies out tremendously and while I’ll repeat this over and over–You don’t draft for need–he’d be a nice investment for the Rockies.

Kyle Russell

Kyle Russell is a 6-foot-5, 185 pound right fielder for the Longhorns. The left-handed hitter was drafted in the fourth round last year as a draft-eligible sophomore & was offered a million dollar signing bonus but turned it down. He was a Golden Spikes Award Finalist last year & a First-team All-American after hitting .336/.456/.807. He led the nation in home runs last year (28) and stole ten bases.

Russell, like Danks, was touted as a five-tool player by the announcers. Both of their pages on TexasSports.com call them five-tool athletes as well. I might be more hesitant than most to label someone five-tool, but neither one strikes me as a five-tool player.

At The Plate
Power. Russell has more power than anyone in the draft. He’s big and has room to grow. He has an easy stroke, like Danks. He does a great job of keeping his hands back and driving the ball to all fields. He has an advanced understanding of hitting & frequently takes the ball to the opposite direction. Russell has the power to hit home runs anywhere in the ballpark.

I have concerns, however, about his ability to make contact. He struggles picking up a good change. Like many power hitters, he’ll stikeout often. I think he’s going to struggle severely with strikeouts as a professional hitting with a wood bat. This is definitely NOT a plus tool.

Baserunning
Russell didn’t make any mistakes or show any hesitance during the games I saw but also doesn’t possess great speed. I would grade his speed as average and his base running as average as well. There isn’t anything noteworthy, positive or negative.

Defense
Russell has average range in right field. He could learn to take better routes, but he won’t become a rangy outfielder by any means. He does have one of the best outfield arms in the draft though. He has a plus arm and profiles very well in right field.

Concluding Comments & Draft Status
My concerns with Russell are pretty severe. He’ll strikeout too often & that is a cause for concern. Moving to a wood bat isn’t going to help that. I think his power is real & will play at the next level. The question I have is related to his ability to develop more than just power. While judging prospects, my favorite question to ask is what does this guy need to do to become a big leaguer? With Russell, he needs to make more contact and improve his range defensively. I don’t know if he’s going to become a better hitter but I do know his power is very good.

Because Russell’s skill set is one that will require a great deal of development before he’s a successful big leaguer, he’s a guy that I wouldn’t look at until after the first round.