Mound Talk

I recently listened to John Sickels XM radio show where he was speaking with an executive with the Toronto Blue Jays. As the discussion moved to Travis Snider, there was a good dialogue about his future and skill set. The summary is that Snider will start the season in Double-A (skipping High-A) and the Jays are still trying to keep him in the outfield.

I wanted to take some time to look at Snider from a statistical point of view and look at this out of character move by the Jays who typically do not promote players very aggressively.

First, let’s look at Snider without the statistics. He’s 5-foot-11, 230 pounds. He bats and throws left-handed. He was drafted in the first round (14^th overall) of the 2006 draft by the Toronto Blue Jays. He has predominantly played right field but a move to first or designated hitter may be in order at the big league level. After being drafted he spent time in Toronto’s Appalachian League Affiliate, Pulaski and made his full-season debut with their Low-A affiliate in the Midwest League, Lansing.

In Low-A (2007) Snider hit .313/.377/.525. This is quite impressive for the Midwest League. He was second in batting average, first in slugging and seventh in on-base percentage. His OPS was tops in the league by 44 points. His OPS ranks 42^nd in the MWL over the last twenty years (min. 150 at-bats), however, 22 of the guys ahead of him were 23 or older during their MWL stint. At a basic level, it is very clear that Snider’s vital line last year put him in a statistical category that is rarely achieved in the Midwest League.

Beyond his vitals, Snider racked up 16 home runs, seven triples and 35 doubles. 40.5% of his hits went for extra bases and what’s more impressive, is that 12.7% of hit at-bats resulted in extra bases.

Snider does a great job of hitting the ball to all fields. However, there are a few concerns about his approach. Namely, he seemed to be the beneficiary of good luck this year and he got by with a high strikeout rate.

As always, luck means that he rode the positive side of variance, not that there was a mystical force that helped him out and in this particular case, it happens to be with a batting average on balls in play (BABIP) that doesn’t correlate well with his balls in play (BIP) data. As most of you are aware, there is significant research to suggest that BABIP should be roughly equal to LD% + 12% for big leaguers. For minor leaguers, the addition isn’t quite the same for a few reasons. Many players can capitalize on inferior defensive players in the minors or simply have superior skills. Regardless, a player who exhibits a low line drive percentage is unlikely to continue to be successful without changing his approach.

Looking at BIP data taken from MinorLeagueSplits.com, Snider put 333 balls in play in 2007. Only 46 of these, or 13.8%, were line drives. I typically like to see a hitter closer to 20% line drives. Regardless, Snider’s 13.8% LD% suggests an Expected BABIP (xBABIP) of about .260. However, his actual BABIP was .407.

So is the 147 point disparity really that big of a concern? I am not terribly concerned about it at this moment. However, it is a concern for me as he continues moving up. If he exhibits a similar pattern of low LD% and abnormally high BABIP in Double-A, then I will be concerned. But for the moment, I think it’s ok to ignore this blip as an issue of variance and not necessarily an issue of stats that aren’t replicable.

The second issue is one that is more tangible and much more significant to me: strikeouts. He struck out 129 times in 522 plate appearances in Lansing, or, 24.7% of his plate appearances. Granted he was 19 and in his first full-season, striking out this much in Low-A is never a good sign. He will definitely need to cut down on his strikeouts if he can’t improve his LD%.

In the long run, Snider will have to improve either his LD% or his K% to continue to be an effective hitter. Now, with respect to the initial question about the aggressive promotion, I have to say I agree with the Blue Jays. Snider has shown mastery for the level he was at. He has shown great skill and seen great results. He needs to be challenged.

I expect to see him struggle. I expect him to hit more line drives next season and I expect his BABIP to drop to the point where his BABIP and xBABIP are more in line. I expect him to have a worse batting average though I think his power will continue to build. I don’t think the aggressive promotion will hurt his development.