Mound Talk

#3: Kansas City RoyalsThe Kansas City Royals have been very good at evaluating bats recently. They have been able to acquire monster bats in Mike Moustakas (2007), Alex Gordon (2005) & Billy Butler (2004) and pitchers Zach Greinke (2002) & Luke Hochevar (2006). The only real misses in the first round for the Royals in the last six drafts have been Chris Lubanski & Matt Campbell. Everyone else has at least been in the bigs. Deric Ladnier has been the Royals Scouting Director since 2001. Prior to that post he worked in the Atlanta Braves organization in Minor League Operations. Royals GM Dayton Moore took over in June of 2006 and, like Ladnier, is a student of the Braves system. In Ladnier’s years as Scouting Director, the Royals have predictably taken many college players. Dayton Moore carries with him the same preferences and just like the Atlanta Braves, leans towards college pitchers.Money doesn’t seem like it’s going to be an issue for the Royals, though there are options if they decide to go cheap. Holt High School (Missouri) righty Tim Melville may be a popular and cheap home town pick but Missouri right hander Aaron Crow could still be available. Either one of these guys would make a nice media story for the Royals.Eric Hosmer could be a good pick for the Royals if they’re willing to shell out the cash. A lineup with Hosmer, Moustakas, Gordon & Butler could have huge power! Pedro Alvarez still looms for the Royals in our mock and if he is available, the Royals will certainly be intrigued, despite having Alex Gordon at third already and Mike Moustakas playing third for their Low-A affiliate.Kansas City Royals
Likely Selections: Aaron Crow, RHP, College. Tim Melville, RHP, HS. Brian Matusz, LHP, College. Pedro Alvarez, 3B, College.
Mound Talk Selection: Brian Matusz, LHP, San DiegoThe Royals won’t go too cheap in this draft but they will forgo better players in favor of a more signable guy. It’s not that bad of a pick as Matusz will be a fairly quick mover & the Royals could use another pitcher to go along with Gil Meche, Zach Greinke & Luke Hochevar.

#4: Baltimore Orioles

The Baltimore Orioles opened their wallet last year on Matt Wieters & Jake Arrieta, among others. Joe Jordan is the Scouting Director, as he has been for the past three drafts in Baltimore. Andy McPhail is the General Manager and this is his first year at the helm of the draft for Baltimore. His prior post was as CEO of the Chicago Cubs. Looking over Joe Jordan’s drafts, they have been focused heavily on college players. Over the last three drafts, the O’s have selected a high schooler with only eight of their picks in the top 15 rounds. They have also focused more heavily on position players taking just 19 pitchers in that same range.

The Orioles are in a full rebuilding mode at the moment and certainly won’t be drafting for positional need. If Pedro Alvarez is available, they’ll snatch him up in a hurry. I can’t see him getting passed at this slot. If he is gone though, look for Baltimore to consider first basemen Eric Hosmer or Yonder Alonso. Alonso is a big bat out of Miami (FL) that could play his way up in the draft. The O’s might be intruged by Aaron Crow’s potential but he looks to be carrying a hefty price tag so it’s possible that Baltimore might shy away from that idea. I feel fairly safe saying the O’s are taking a college player with their first pick and that money is of no object to them.

Baltimore Orioles
Likely Selections: Pedro Alvarez, 3B, College. Aaron Crow, RHP, College. Yonder Alonso, 1B, College. Tanner Scheppers, RHP, College.
Mound Talk Selection: Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Vandy

Baltimore got a steal with Alvarez at this point in the draft. Alvarez is the best college bat in the draft and perhaps the #1 player in the draft but bonus demands gave the O’s another gift. The prospect tandem of Alvarez & Wieters gives the Orioles two of the top position player propsects in all of baseball heading into 2009. Additionally, it would give the Orioles some much needed help in the near future. Alvarez & Wieters would join Nick Markakis & Adam Jones to give the O’s four good hitters to compliment a growing number of MLB pitchers including Jeremy Guthrie, Daniel Cabrera, Radhames Liz, Troy Patton, James Hoey & Chris Ray at the big league level. Most interesting though, would be the possibility to two top ten prospects heading into 2009 complimented with pitching prospects Chris Tillman and Jake Arrieta.
#5: San Francisco Giants

The Giants have a lot of holes to fill & very little pencilled in for their future. Brian Sabean has been GM for the Giants since 1996. His last five drafts have been with Matt Nerland as Scouting Director. Together they have combined to form some of the most college heavy drafts over the last few seasons. Over five drafts, the Giants have selected 76 times in the first 15 rounds. They have selected just seven guys out of high school & five of them were in last seasons draft. Another trend has been to take slightly more pitchers. With the 76 draft picks, they have selected 42 pitchers. The move last year to take more high school pitchers is an interesting one & a trend that I wouldn’t be surprised to see continue.

The Giants are likely to take the best college bat available after going heavy on pitching in last years draft. Yonder Alonso is good options. A first basemen, Alonso is from Miami (FL) however, the general feeling is that Giants top prospect Angel Villalona will have to move to first base for defensive purposes. This may alter the Giants thinking & influence them to look at a different position. If this happens, the Giants may be interested in Georgia shortstop Gordon Beckham or Florida State catcher Buster Posey.

Gordon Beckham’s defense is questionable and has led some to believe he’ll have to move off the position, although it’s not a definite that he will. He has very good power & pretty good skills everywhere else. Beckham has average speed offensively but is a smart base runner. In the little I’ve seen of him he has impressed me with his aggressiveness & intellect on the bases. I like Beckham more as a second baseman where he will show above-average range, a very good arm & be a bigger contributor defensively. His bat looks good in all departments. All tolled, Beckham has the potential to be an above average offensive and defensive middle infielder.

Florida State catcher Buster Posey is an interesting fellow. The range of possibilities for Posey is quite large. As previously mentioned, Peter Gammons has suggested he could go #1 overall & some project him to be outside the top 10. Either way, he is an athletic player with loads of potential. He started his college career as a shortstop. He is an advanced hiter & has shown decent power. He’ll won’t be a consistent 20 home run threat but from what I’ve seen on television, he’ll be a good doubles hitter. Defensively he could use some work but certainly projects to be a good moving catcher with a strong arm and good receiving skills. Comparing him to last years top catcher, Matt Wieters, Posey lags behind defensively and will need more work before he’s Major League ready. Wieters has more power but Posey is no slouch offensively. He has a nice compact swing and is very balanced. He should be a good hitter for average and has good pitch recognition skills. He could be a .300 hitter with a good OBP & plenty of doubles.

San Francisco Giants
Likely Selections: Yonder Alonso, 1B, College. Tanner Scheppers, RHP, College. Gordon Beckham, SS, College. Buster Posey, C, College.
Mound Talk Selection: Gordon Beckham, SS, Georgia

This is a good selection for the Giants who have recently reloaded their farm club with a group of young high school pitchers. In a system that lacks talent at any level and with a big league club whose only bright spots are Matt Cain, Tim Lincecum & Jonathan Sanchez, a good up-the-middle position player would be a tremendous help. Beckham has the potential to move fairly quickly as his bat is advanced. The question for the Giants is whether or not they think he can stick at short. My guess is that they shy away from Alonso in favor of the better defender which really makes the decision Beckham or Posey.

#6: Florida Marlins

The Marlins have a lot of options with the sixth pick. Aaron Crow has fallen in our Mock Draft and is definitely the best player available. However, he is going to command a high bonus & the Marlins have been very tight-fisted with their checkbook lately. Another top talent, Eric Hosmer, also carries a big ticket & will fall beyond the Marlins. The Fish will definitely be looking for an easy sign but also someone who looks to provide good value. Yonder Alonso makes some sense here as do catchers Buster Posey & Kyle Skipworth. Tulane righty Shooter Hunt is another guy that would top the talent chart without busting the wallet.

Larry Beinfist & Stan Meek have been GM & scouting Director for the Marlins for each of the last six drafts. Over that time the Marlins have been a much more balanced in their selections. Of their 96 selections in the first 15 rounds, they have gone with 43 pitchers & 28 high school players. Unlike the GM/SD combinations before them, the Marlins have taken high school players with a good number of top draft picks. The 2008 draft is thin on high school talent but the Marlins are a team that would be looking for a high upside high school guy.

I can’t imagine the Marlins dishing out the cash for Hosmer, although he’s probably the best bat available. Crow will also be too pricey for the cheap Fish. However, Miami first baseman Yonder Alonso would be a good fit here. He’s a big bat & a good media story. Catchers Kyle Skipworth & Buster Posey are also options at this point but the former might be too costly. For the Marlins, this is a tough draft. There is a lot of talent for them to choose from, but for a team that is unwilling to spend money on their Major League club, it’s hard to justify spending it on 18-22 year olds.

Kyle Skipworth is a high school catcher out of California. He’s a big hitter from the left side with lots of power. Skipworth projects as a decent hitter for average but with plus power. He doesn’t have much speed and doesn’t move very well behind the dish or on the bases. He has one of the best arms of all the catchers in the draft. He is very much about projection.

Florida Marlins
Likely Selections: Yonder Alonso, 1B, College. Kyle Skipworth, C, HS. Buster Posey, C, College. Shooter Hunt, RHP, College.
Mound Talk Selection: Yonder Alonso, 1B, Miami

Florida goes cheap & takes the local kid here. While they left a lot of talent on the board, it’s hard to fault the Marlins for not spending the money on Hosmer or Crow. Presuming their bonus is in the $6 million range, which some have speculated is low, it’s hard to justify spending 1/4 of their Major League payroll on an 18 or 21 year old guy. Alonso will add a much needed bat to the Marlins farm system. Outside of Matt Dominguez, Chris Coghlan & Cameron Maybin, the Marlins don’t have much in terms of position player prospects.

#7: Cincinnati Reds

With Walt Jocketty now taking over for the Reds as General Manager, the Reds will have a new philosophy in 2008. Jocketty comes from St. Louis where he is used to having extra draft picks & drafting college players. Over his last four drafts he has selected 69 times in the first fifteen rounds. Over those 69 selections, Jocketty only took eight high school players & drafted 37 pitchers. While fairly balanced between pitchers & position players, Jocketty clearly steers clear of high school players with the exception of elite players. The high schoolers taken were Colby Rasmus, Bryan Anderson, Tyler Herron, Josh Wilson, Matt North, Travis Mitchell, Peter Kozma & Deryk Hooker. Two of the high schoolers were first round picks and four of the twelve picks in the first two rounds have been high schoolers. So when Jocketty is selecting in the first two rounds he’s more likely to take a high scool player.

The Reds have plenty of options and money shouldn’t be a factor for them. If they want to go with offense, they have plenty of options. Eric Hosmer is still available at first base and catchers Buster Posey & Kyle Skipworth are still available. Pitchers Aaron Crow & Shooter Hunt are two of the best college pitchers & Tanner Scheppers is right there with them. High school pitcher Tim Melville is floating around & the Reds love their high school players.

Tanner Scheppers has been one of the most impressing college pitchers this year for Fresno State. He’s a tall & athletic righty. His fastball is 92-94 and moves very well. He has a very good, hard slider. That is basically the extent of his current arsenal. He needs to work on his mechanics a little to develop a repeatable motion. He could add velocity to his fastball with better mechanics. His slider lacks command but that is, again, related to not having a repeated motion. He is very much a high upside selection.

Tim Melville is a high school righty out of Missouri. He hasn’t shown much this year, but that is fairly typical of Midwest pitchers because of the weather. His fastball is in the low-90s but he should be able to pump that up to 94-95 as he fills out & develops his arm motion a little more. He has a nice knuckle-curve that shows good movement & deceptive delivery. His change is poor with little control. Melville is on par with most high school arms in that he is all about projection. The floor for Melville is real low but the ceiling is very high. With great arm strength & the possibility of adding more velocity, Melville is a very attractive choice.
Cincinnati Reds
Likely Selections: Aaron Crow, RHP, College. Tim Melville, RHP, HS. Buster Posey, C, College. Kyle Skipworth, C, HS
Mound Talk Selection: Aaron Crow, RHP, Missouri

It’s been a long day for Crow as he watched six other players come off the board before someone finally took him. The Reds will have to pony up for him but they were able to get a top five talent at number seven in the draft. With his mid-90s fastball & power slider, the Reds have a pitcher with good stuff. His command is pretty good though he’ll need to work on his slider and changeup. Crow has a problem in his delivery where he’ll open his right wrist and let it fall back. This extra motion is unneccesary & something that will need to be corrected. When he does that, he’ll have better command and consistency.

#8: Chicago White Sox

General Manager Kenny Williams has been at the helm for Chicago since 2000. Doug Laumann was his Scouting Director from 2001-2003 & is back at that position now. Since he was last Scouting Director, he’s been working with the organization as a pro scout. During the 2001-2003 drafts, Laumann brought Brian Anderson, Ryan Sweeney, Jeremy Reed, Chris Young (the outfielder), Royce Ring, Brandon McCarthy, Boone Logan & Jay Marshall into the system, among others.

Kenny Williams last four drafts have been eerily similar. He has made 63 selections in the first fifteen rounds & with those picks has selected 13 high school players, almost exclusively after the fifth round. Of the 63 selections, 37 have been pitchers & more interesting, Williams has heavily favored pitchers early. I am expecting this trend to continue.

The White Sox have one of the worst farm systems in baseball. The lone bright spot is first round pick from last season, Aaron Poreda. Eric Hosmer is the best player available, but, as always, the price tag is the issue. The White Sox may bite on Hosmer but will also give heavy consideration to the college pitchers available like Tanner Scheppers & Shooter Hunt. The Southsiders may bite on an electric arm like Gerit Cole who carries more risk & upside than Scheppers or Hunt but I’m fairly confident they’re going to be looking at a faster moving player.

Gerrit Cole would be an intriguing pick for many teams. He has a power arm out of Lutheran High School in California. However, he has shown poor command & mechanics. He’s hit the upper-90s with his fastball and shown good movement. However, his slider is inconsistent & he needs plenty of development. He would be a reach at number eight but I don’t think it would be too much of a stretch to see the White Sox take him.

Another option for the White Sox is to take one of the two catchers, Posey & Skipworth, with this selection. These two catchers carry a higher bust rate than Scheppers & Hunt in my estimation. While Skipworth has superstar potential, he may have to move positions. While Posey is pretty likely to stay at catcher, he is not very likely to be a superstar but I am pretty confident he’ll be an above-average player. The decision to draft guys like these two is a tough one for GMs & SDs to make. My feeling on the White Sox is that they are going to be Chicago White Sox
Likely Selections: Eric Hosmer, 1B, HS. Tanner Scheppers, RHP, College. Shooter Hunt, RHP, College. Gerrit Cole, RHP, HS.
Mound Talk Selection: Tanner Scheppers, RHP, Fresno State

I like this selection for the White Sox from a risk perspective. They are an older team with next to nothing in their system. He’s got good velocity working in the mid-90s with solid movement. His slider has good potential. If the White Sox are to rebuild their system, they will need to do it by securing guys with low bust rates. I like Scheppers to be a slower moving, yet solid pitching prospect. Scheppers would immediately join Aaron Poreda as the top two prospects in the system & give the White Sox a good reason for hope.

#9: Washington Nationals

Jim Bowden & Dana Brown have teamed up for the Nationals last three drafts. During that time, they have had good success in the draft. Last year they successfully bolstered a dead farm system with three extra selections. Their three drafts together have resulted in 48 picks in the first fifteen rounds. During that time they have taken 18 high school players. However, of their first five round picks (18 total), there have been 11 high school picks. Additionally, the Nats have been particularly inclined to take pitchers having drafted 26 & eight in the first five rounds. Bowden & Brown are likely to be looking for a college bat that is close or a high upside high school bat. I don’t think they will be entertaining any pitchers that are likely to be available to them. If the draft goes as I have it, the Nats will be focusing exclusively on position players with this selection.

The Nationals invested a lot in last years draft and have a reinvigorated farm club. Again, the best player available here is Eric Hosmer but his price tag may preclude the Nationals from taking him. Buster Posey & Kyle Skipworth will be heavily considered. Shooter Hunt is another candidate but given how heavy they have gone on pitching lately, I think they’ll be looking for a bat. High School Outfielder Aaron Hicks is also a guy who could be on the Nationals radar. He will be considered as both an outfielder & a right handed pitcher.

At this point in the draft, the elite players are certainly going to be gone but there will be a distinct separation in the best players available & the likely selections: $$. Teams are forced to make choices between paying more for a player like Hosmer or going for a more reasonable player with less talent. Further, teams will make selections based on upside versus safety. A good illustration of this is at catcher. As I’ve mentioned, Buster Posey does not have the upside to be a superstar catcher in the same category as Matt Wieters or Jeff Clement. But at the same time, he does not pose the risk of a player like Hank Conger or Jesus Montero.

Buster Posey is very athletic. He went to Florida State as a shortstop but moved behind the plate. He’s also thrown as a closer. Posey is a good hitter with good discipline. He doesn’t have tremendous home run power but will hit the ball hard to all fields. He’ll be a good hitting catcher, but not great. Defensively he has a good arm & moves well. Every time I’ve seen him I’ve been very impressed with his receiving skills. I like him a lot. He’ll need work behind the plate yet as he hasn’t spend a great deal of time there but if he can get signed will have short-season ball and hopefully get a chance to get out to Hawaii this winter for more action.

Kyle Skipworth is a high school catcher out of California. He is a left handed hitter & is very strong. His power is well above average however, I don’t know if he’ll be able to hit for average. He certainly has a chance to be a strong hitter for power & average but has work to do before he’s there. He has a very good arm & uses it well. Defensively he is behind where he should be. He doesn’t move all that well and particularly needs to improve his footwork. I don’t know if he’ll stick at catcher but his bat very good.

Washington Nationals
Likely Selections: Eric Hosmer, 1B, HS. Kyle Skipworth, C, HS. Buster Posey, C, College. Aaron Hicks, OF/RHP, HS.
Mound Talk Selection: Kyle Skipworth, C, High School.

While the Nationals might go with Posey instead of Skipworth, I went with the higher upside of Skipworth but won’t be surprised to see either one go first, or ahead of #9. It’s a good pick for a system that is loaded with pitching depth. Skipworth’s main developmental concern will be his defense. I would expect his bat to carry him pretty quickly. Skipworth is a big time upside prospect & could be a steal for the Nats at #9.

#10: Houston Astros

The Astros have been incredibly cheap in the draft. Hosmer is really not an option for them at all. Bobby Heck takes over as the new Scouting Director. He comes from the Milwaukee Brewers. His mark on the Brewers organization is characterized by power high school arms & power college bats. He personally scouted Ryan Braun, Jeremy Jeffress & Mark Rodgers, among others. General Manager Ed Wade had been with the Phillies in the same post from 1998-2005. Looking over his last four drafts there, Wade was not afraid to take high school players early and primarily looked for bats early. With 57 picks since 2002 in the first fifteen rounds, Wade took 16 high schoolers but seven came in his 17 picks in the first five rounds. Wade has gone heavy on bats taking just 25 pitchers in the first fifteen rounds.

I’d expect the Astros to be looking at a college bat or high school power arm here. That seems to fit the profile for both Ed Wade & Bobby Heck. Buster Posey would be a good pick here although their 2006 top pick, Max Sapp, is a catcher & the Astros have some depth already at that position. Shooter Hunt could be an option despite not fitting my thoughts on the Astros desires. There is no shortage of college bats in this draft but in my mock draft, teams have heavily gone in their favor leaving fairly slim pickings for the Astros. Prep arm Tim Melville is an option though he doesn’t quite fit the bill of a power arm. Aaron Hicks could get some consideration here as well.

Gerrit Cole, a righty out of a California High School, is another guy who could get some attention from the Astros. He’s 6-foot-3 and throws his fastball in the mid-90s though he has been reported in the 97-98 range. His fastball moves very well. He throws a slider that is inconsistent but has good movement. His changeup isn’t great, but very few high school pitchers have a developed change. He’s projectable & knows how to throw strikes. Those two things make him a very alluring prospect.

Houston Astros
Likely Selections: Buster Posey, C, College. Aaron Hicks, OF/RHP, HS. Gerrit Cole, RHP, HS. Tim Melville, RHP, HS.
Mound Talk Selection: Gerrit Cole, RHP, High School.

Cole may cost the Astros more than they would have liked but the Scott Boras-advisee is the kind of guy Ed Wade & Bobby Heck have shown an affinity for in the past. The Astros went for upside with this pick & I feel taking Cole here is a reach but the Astros won’t go for Eric Hosmer because of his bonus demands & will pass on the next best player available, Buster Posey, because it is a position of strength for them. This pick is the first pick of the draft that will have people surprised.

#11: Texas Rangers

The Texas Rangers have a loaded system thanks to several big trades & plenty of draft picks last year. The influx of talent is predominantly in the low minors & full of high upside guys who are also big risks. Once again, the two best players available for this selection are high school first baseman, Eric Hosmer, & Florida State catcher Buster Posey. Given the depth of the Rangers catchers (Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Taylor Teagarden, Max Ramirez), they may shy away from Posey. However, Hosmer remains a possibility.

The Rangers are committed up up-the-middle guys under General Manager Jon Daniels. During his two drafts, the Rangers have been focused on high school players & pitchers. With his 33 picks in the first fifteen rounds he has selected 14 high school players & 18 pitchers. Of the high school players he has taken eight in the first five rounds (13 selections). These 13 selections break down as seven pitchers, one catcher, two shortstops, a first baseman (Chris Davis), a centerfielder & a third baseman. The lone exception was a power bat. Given his choice, Daniels would like to take a pitcher, shortstop, second baseman or centerfielder.

The Rangers are a very tricky team to figure out here. Given their tendancies, there are a lot of possibilities. As mentioned, Eric Hosmer presents the best talent but, of course, has tremendous bonus demands. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Rangers go with him at this point and spend the money. At the same time, there are plenty of options that fit their draft history better.

Miami (FL) second baseman Jemille Weeks would be an intriguing pick here. Though it would definitely be a stretch, he has been gaining a lot of steam lately and even had some people saying he is better than his brother (Rickie) when he came out of college. Weeks projects to be a better defender than his brother but without the same power. He has a tighter swing but slower hands. I’d guess Jemille will be able to hit for a good average but without the power. He may be a touch quicker.

High Scool outfielder Aaron Hicks is a very athletic centerfielder. He is raw & certainly needs to develop but he projects very well. He has good power potential, shows a lot at the plate in terms of contact but is raw & is very quick. He has a great arm & moves well. Hicks fits well into the mold the Rangers have created & would be a good pick for them here.

Shooter Hunt is another guy the Rangers will heavily consider if he’s available. He represents the best pitching prospect available in my mind & has a history with the Rangers. They selected Hunt with their selection in the 34th round of the 2005 draft. Though there is different personel at the top, this connection may bear somewhat in their selection.

Texas Rangers
Likely Selections: Eric Hosmer, 1B, HS. Jemille Weeks, 2B, College. Aaron Hicks, OF, HS. Shooter Hunt, RHP, College.
Mound Talk Selection: Eric Hosmer, 1B, High School

Ultimatley, I think if Hosmer is available, the Rangers will take him. It’s a good fit for an organization that has become loaded with pitchers. Hosmer is a big time power bat with a lot of potential. The Rangers will be very happy with him. This was a difficult selection to make because so many players make sense here. Buster Posey is one of the two best players available but organizational depth will move the Rangers off of him & with Daniels draft philosophy, Weeks & Hicks are great options. The Rangers have the history with Hunt as well. Faced with all these options, the Rangers have a difficult decision to make.

#12: Oakland Athletics

I’m sure everyone is at least familiar with Moneyball & I’m sure that most of you know that A’s General Manager Billy Beane does NOT select just high schoolers…just most of the time. With his last four drafts, Beane has selected 15 high schoolers in the first fifteen rounds (68 selections) & seven in the first five rounds (28 selections). However, the A’s have gone extremely heavy on pitchers including 40 of 68 top 15 round picks & 15 of 28 in the first five rounds. A pitcher makes sense here for Billy Beane.

Shooter Hunt is the best pitcher available & if he’s around, Beane will be tempted to snatch him up. Jemille Weeks would be be another option that fits nicely. Again, Buster Posey is the best college bat & with Hosmer being selected, the best position player available.
There’s a good change the A’s would pass on Posey in favor of Weeks at this spot. Again, I consider this to be a bit of a reach with the twelfth selection but worse picks have been made. I think of Weeks as more in the 16-20 range than the 11-15. However, if a team is looking for a middle infielder & feels Weeks is above average defensively, the pick here makes sense.

Georgia’s closer Josh Fields sneaks in as late consideration here. He would move quickly through the system, like current closer Huston Street, & could help a resurgent team in the very near future. Fields is a short righty & will likely fall on most draft boards because of that, but that never stopped Billy Beane from drafting anyone.

Oakland Athletics
Likely Selections: Jemille Weeks, 2B, College. Shooter Hunt, RHP, College. Buster Posey, C, College. Josh Fields, RHP, College.
Mound Talk Selection: Shooter Hunt, RHP, Tulane

Hunt has front line potential but also is pretty raw. He’ll need a lot of work to get his command down & be an effective pro pitcher but he certainly is talented. Hunt would join a talented group of A’s pitching prospects including Henry Rodriguez, Trevor Cahill, Fautino de los Santos & Craig Italiano to go with their very talented group of young hitters.

#13: St. Louis Cardinals

Walt Jocketty left the Cardinals before this year & the Cardinals hired John Mozeliak who had been serving as Assistant GM since 2003. Over the last four years the Cardinals have gone heavy on college players drafting only 12 of 69 players in the first fifteen rounds out of high school. However, two of those four years their top selection was a high school player. I’m expecting the Cardinals to look for a college player but at this point we’re beginning to see the high school talent become more on par with the college talent. I think it is possible that St. Louis takes a high scool player because of this shift in available talent but I’m still thinking college at this point.

As a whole the system isn’t great. There are good players & prospects worth noting but outside of Rasmus & Anderson, the Cardinals don’t have a guys that I consider impact prospects though they have good supporting prospects like Jaime Garcia & Adam Ottavino. While the Cardinals, like every team, would like to draft the guy who turns out to have the best career for them, I wouldn’t be surprised to see them pass on a more talented player in favor of a less risky player.

Once again, Buster Posey is the top position player available and he looks like a good option for the Cardinals. They have talent at catcher with Molina in the bigs & Bryan Anderson knocking at the door. I don’t think Anderson or Molina is a reason to not draft Posey for the Cardinals but I do think that he wouldn’t be a sure fire pick for them if available. Jemile Weeks would definitely spark the interest of the Cardinals. He has good impact potential. Once again, I think this is a reach but he’ll get consideration as well.

#13 is where I think we can start to see legitimate buzz about college closers being taken. While the A’s might be tempted to go with Josh Fields out of Georgia at twelve, there is too much talent for them to pass on at their selection. One slot later the major difference is that the top college starters are gone and if the Cards were to select a college starter, they’d be going for a guy a notch lower. Those college starters that are in the next tier include Christian Friedrich & Lance Lynn. Lynn is a stretch at this point but I imagine he’d be signable for slot money for sure.

Ryan Perry, a righty from Arizona who has been moved to the bullpen has some merit here as does another closer, Andrew Cashner out of Texas Christian. Again, both are reaches here but would be signable & I can’t see the Cards splurging here.

One guy I like here is Ethan Martin, a right handed pitcher & third baseman out of a Georgia High Scool. He has three potential plus pitches & locates them well. He’s one high school pitcher I’ve seen full video (not just compiled video clips) of and I like what he offers. He’s only recently started pitching which may give a reason to pass on him at this point but he’s picking up steam in my eyes in this draft.

St. Louis Cardinals
Likely Selections: Buster Posey, C, College. Jemile Weeks, 2B, College. Christian Friedrich, LHP, College. Ethan Martin, RHP, HS.
Mound Talk Selection: Christian Friedrich, LHP, Eastern Kentucky

This pick fits the mold & gives the Cards another pitcher in their system that they could definitely use. He’s 6-foot-3 & throws in the low 90s. He could add some velocity but not much. He has a 12-6 curve that grades as a plus pitch at this point. His changeup is ok but has potential. He’ll be a fast mover as he’s a refined pitcher with a very good delivery. I like what he offers in terms of limited risk & pretty solid potential.

#14: Minnesota Twins

The Twins won’t go over slot. They just don’t. In fact, they are one team that has consistently gone under slot! That won’t change. They like their high school players and will have a good selection to choose from at #14.

Buster Posey is again the top bat available and one college player the Twins would heavily consider.

I like the Twins to consider Aaron Hicks & Ethan Martin, high school righties as well as Casey Kelly, a shortstop who could also be taken as a right handed pitcher. Any of these high schoolers offer high upside & are just the kind of guys the Twins like. Signability may come into play for Hicks & Martin but I have no indication that Kelly would be a tough sign though my college football friends have told me he’s a pretty big Tennessee prospect having committed to be a Volunteer as a quarterback.

I like Josh Fields here a lot. The Georgia closer would move quickly & the Twins love loaded bullpens. The potential in this pick is very good as Fields could feasibly contribute in 2008 if the Twins keep up the pace they’ve been on though that will have little to no bearing on their selection.

Minnesota Twins
Likely Selections: Buster Posey, C, College. Aaron Hicks, RHP, HS. Ethan Martin, RHP, HS. Casey Kelly, RHP, HS.
Mound Talk Selection: Ethan Martin, RHP, High School

The Twins get a high school arm with excellent potential though they passed on Posey which they may regret, but Martin will fit in well with the Twins. There’s a chance they would give him a look as a third baseman but ultimately I think he offers more as a pitcher than a position player.