Mound Talk

BACKGROUND AND STATS

Ian Stewart was drafted tenth overall in 2003 by the Colorado Rockies out of high school and exploded onto the prospect scene in his first season full season. The 6-foot-3 205 pound third baseman has moved up through the Rockies system and is now forcing the playoff team to make a major personnel decision with Garrett Atkins already at third and veteran Todd Helton at first.

His first professional season was in 2003 in the Pioneer League. In 253 plate appearances, Stewart hit .317/.395/.558 with ten home runs, 14 doubles and five triples.

In 2004 he moved up to the South Atlantic League where he hit a remarkably similar .319/.395/.594. He blasted 30 home runs, nine triples and 31 doubles. A staggering 13.8% of his at-bats resulted in an extra-base hit. He flashed some speed stealing a career high 19 bases in a career high 28 attempts.

He followed up his breakout campaign with a .274/.353/.497 performance at Modesto in the High-A, California League. Despite his drop in his vital line, Stewart still hit 17 home runs, seven triples and 32 doubles.

2006 went the same way 2005 had for Stewart. His slow decline continued as he hit .268/.351/.452. Many of his home runs turned into doubles has he hit just 10 home runs, seven triples and 41 doubles. Some began to doubt Stewart and compared him to Brandon Wood for having one good season followed by less remarkable but somewhat promising seasons. The difference is that for Stewart, the secondary stats remained in line with expectations.

Stewart was moved up to Triple-A, Colorado Springs for 2007 where, like so many others, he saw a drastic improvement in his statistics in the Rocky Mountains. Stewart hit .304/.376/.478 with 40 extra base hits. While Stewart seemed to get his career back on track, a closer examination reveals a different story. His home line this season read .357/.427/.580 where his road line was a measly .251/.323/.377. This dramatic difference sheds light on how productive Stewart really was.

AT THE PLATE

Stewart is a very well built baseball player. He has a solid upper body and a lot of strength. His wrists are very strong and very quick which helps him cover most of the plate.

He stands in with an open stance, hands high and a wide base. He generates power through his hips and wrists but has merely average bat speed. The biggest drawback in his swing is that his body moves inefficiently and some energy is wasted. He’ll need to work on focusing all of his movement into the swing to maximize his ability.

Stewart has been heralded for his power ever since his dominant 2004 in Asheville. His pure power is very good and is really his calling card. He’s a good pull hitter but tends not to be able to go the other way, especially for power.

IN THE FIELD

Stewart has soft hands at third with above average range. He moves well to his right and adequately to his left. He has a good arm and great defensive instincts. In a perfect world, Stewart could be a Gold Glove winner.

THE FUTURE

Stewart is going to challenge for a spot in Colorado next season. His defense at third is his biggest asset over current third baseman, Garrett Atkins. Though, with Kaz Matsui’s impending free agency, Stewart could see a move to second base which he should be able to handle, defensively, just fine.

There was a point where he looked like a .285/.360/.480 with 30 home runs. However, a closer look at Stewart’s numbers indicates a different story and here is where the real interesting case study comes in to play.

Stewart has the required scouting tools. He has good power, good wrists and makes average contact. His strikeout rate has never been higher than 22.6% in full-season ball and consistently sits at 19.3%. His numbers have always suggested positive things. His batting average has been fluctuating between .268 and .319. His on-base has been on the positive side of .350 and his slugging near .500. His power has been undeniable. His BABIP has been in line and his LD% acceptable.

For Stewart, the key lies in his home/road split. In Colorado Springs, he was a very good hitter. He went .357/.427/.580 with 9 of his 15 Triple-A home runs. On the road he hit .251/.323/.377 with 6 of his 15 home runs. Obviously this difference is concerning. But what is more concerning is that his LD% was three points lower at home and his GB% was 12 points higher at home. He walked more at home and struck out less. His BABIP increased .102 at home.

Ultimately, Ian Stewart’s 2007 season looks like a good one but put in context, it is pretty much inline with the rest of his minor league career. 2007 was certainly not a breakout for Stewart but perhaps reinforces the idea that statistics are only as valuable as the context they are put in.

Stewart looks, roughly, like the hot-corner’s version of Troy Tulowitzki. His statistics will be greatly inflated by Coors Field and the traditional Colorado home/road split will be even more drastic for Stewart than the average player in Colorado.