Mound Talk

BACKGROUND AND STATS
Ian Kennedy was drafted in 2006 by the New York Yankees with the 21st pick in the draft. He signed for 2.25 million dollars (well over slot money) and went to the New York-Penn League before heading to the Hawaiian Winter League.

Kennedy, a right-handed starting pitcher, was taken out of USC where he had a sucessful collegiate career. Standing generously at 6-foot-0 and 185 pounds, Kennedy does not look like a prototypical pitcher but found sucess with his command at USC. In 2004, at age 19, he struck out 120 batters in 92.2 innings while walking just 31 en route to being named a Baseball America First-Team Freshman All-American.

In 2005 Kennedy was a consensus All-American First Team member and was named Pac-10 Pitcher of the Year. He posted a 2.54 ERA and struck out 158 in 117 innings allowing just 85 hits and 38 walks. He went on to pitch for the US National Team for the second straight year where he, again, found success. In five starts he had a 2.89 ERA with 11 hits allowed and 35 strikeouts in 28 innings.

Kennedy struggled a bit in 2006 yielding his highest ERA to date, 3.90, and over 101.2 innings gave up 100 hits and 36 walks but did strike out 102.

After being drafted, Kennedy went to the New York-Penn League for one appearance where, in 2.2 innings he walked and struck out two wile allowing two hits. He was then sent to the HWL where he struggled. In 30.1 innings he struck out 45 batters, walked 11 and gave up 33 hits including seven doubles. While it wasn’t the positive experience the Yankees were hoping for, Kennedy did impress with his command and poise.

In 2007 Kennedy started with the Tampa Yankees of the High-A Florida State League and ended up with the New York Yankees, making stops in Double- and Triple-A. In a combined 165.1 innings, he struck out 178 and walked 59. He allowed 7 home runs and a meager 104 hits.

ON THE MOUND
Kennedy doesn’t have outstanding stuff. Compared to teammates Philip Hughes and Joba Chamberlain, he has the worst stuff.

Kennedy throws two fastballs. His four-seam sits 88-92 and he will infrequently dial it up to 94. He has good movement and plus command. He can work this to any point he chooses and is easily his best pitch. His two-seamer is 87-90 and doesn’t have the command of his four-seamer. It is still a good pitch that works well for him and he uses it deceptively.

Kennedy has a plus changeup that he’ll throw in any count without fear. He has the same motion as for his fastball and it’s easy to see why the pitch is effective. His command could use a little refinement on his change.

He will also work in two breaking pitches. His curveball is better than his slider but both have potential. His curve doesn’t break sharply but has deception and plus command. His slider also doesn’t break hard but is a good alternative that keeps hitters on their toes.

Though his stuff isn’t great, his command makes him a deadly pitcher. And although he has found success at different levels of his career with what he has, it will not provide sustained success at the Major League level yet. He will need to refine his breaking pitches and work on his command of his change.

On the positive end, he is incredibly confident on the mound and is willing to challenge hitters without hesitation. He is confident enough in his pitching to throw any pitch to any batter.

While watching him pitch, it becomes increasingly apparent that he never throws with maximum effort. His mechanics are easy and repeatable and his body is never out of control or jerky. He seems very fluid and at ease while pitching.

THE FUTURE
Ian Kennedy came out of college with high expectations. He has, to date, not lived those expecations down. At the moment, Kennedy looks like he could step in and be a back-end Major League pitcher in 2008. But with his age (just 23 on Opening Day 2008) and command, Kennedy should become a #2 pitcher before long.

Kennedy’s career will be marked by his K/BB ratio and will always be heralded as such. He won’t overpower anyone or “wow” fans with his electric stuff but will command his pitches effectively and deceive hitters. He should be in the starting rotation next season, barring major acquisitions.