Mound Talk

Joba vs. Clay
Joba Chamberlain and Clay Buchholz are two of the top baseball prospects. Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus and myself all ranked them as the top prospect in their organization. I suspect that Baseball America and other publications will rank both in the top five prospects in all of baseball. Their minor league stats combined with their professional debuts have taken their level of hype to astronomic proportions.
The eventual outcome of this analysis isn’t in question. I ranked Buchholz ahead of Chamberlain in my Top 100 Prospects for 2008. But the real question is why is one ranked ahead of the other.

Chamberlain was drafted by the New York Yankees in 2006 as a supplemental first rounder out of Nebraska. Buchholz was drafted by the Boston Red Sox in 2005 as a supplemental first rounder out of Angelina Junior College. Buchholz is 23 years old and Chamberlain is 22. Buchholz checks in at 6-foot-3, 190 pounds. Chamberlain toes the rubber at 6-foot-2, 230 pounds. Both are right handed pitchers. Chamberlain is younger but his body isn’t as conducive to pitching. Nonetheless, Chamberlain gets the edge

Pitches
Fastball
Buchholz sports a low-90s fastball. He’ll use two fastballs, a four-seamer and a two-seamer. The two-seamer moves well but the four-seamer could use a little more run. Buchholz fastball is conducive to batted balls turning into fly balls.
Chamberlain works in the 96-98 range but as a reliever hit 100 occasionally. His command is pretty good on his fastball.
Chamberlain gets the edge for having a harder fastball with better command and better movement.

Change-up
Buchholz has a very, very good change-up. His arm action is very deceptive and he hides the pitch well. The throws a straight change sitting right around 80 MPH. His change is possibly the best of all prospects.
Chamberlain has a change that sits 80-82 with ok movement. He needs to improve his command.
Buchholz holds an edge on his change-up and it isn’t close

Curveball
Buchholz has a 12-to-6 curveball that is nearly as good as his change-up. He delivers his curve overhand such that it seems to drop off the table. His curve will sit in the 77-80 MPH range and “freezes” hitters.
Chamberlain’s curve is more of the power variety working a little harder than Buchholz and sitting in the 79-82 range. Chamberlain doesn’t use his curveball as often as his fastball and slider, partially because those pitches are so fantastic but also because he doesn’t have the precise control over his curve that he does with his fastball.
Buchholz holds a narrow edge at the moment on his curveball. Chamberlain has the potential to surpass him but Buchholz holds the slightly superior curve.

Slider
Buchholz has shown a lot of potential with his slider. I would grade his slider as above average but with a little more consistency, it will be a plus pitch.
Chamberlain uses a 85-89 MPH slider with excellent command. He keeps the ball down and excels at getting batters to swing and miss. He uses his slider as much as his fastball and with the same devastating results.
Chamberlain has the better slider right now but this pitch is a lot like the curveball comparison. Buchholz has flashed a slider that is as good as Chamberlain’s so it isn’t out of the realm of possibility that his could surpass Chamberlain’s with a little more consistency and development but at the moment, Chamberlain grades out better.

The Pitches Conclusion

The edge goes to Joba Chamberlain with the better “stuff” of the two prospects.

Pitching Style
Pitching style refers most specifically to the way in which a pitcher delivers the ball. The essential questions are: Is he deceptive? Is he using solid mechanics? Is his delivery easily repeatable? These questions are fundamental to determining whether or not a pitcher will be able to succeed at the big league level. With excellent stuff, which each pitcher clearly possesses, deception and mechanics can be compensated for in the minor leagues but at the big league level, pitchers with little deception in their delivery will be exposed by superior hitters and with poor mechanics a pitcher will deal with injuries.
Deception
Both pitchers are deceptive in their ability to hide their pitches. They have the same arm angle on all pitches and use the same arm speed. Buchholz made significant strides in 2007 to develop consistency in this aspect and when he throws his change it looks just like the fastball coming out of his hand. Chamberlain does a great job of hiding his hand from batters until the last moment causing batters to be uncertain about whether they will be swinging at a high fastball, table-dropping curve or flailing at a slider.
Buchholz holds the slightest edge in this department because he is a touch more consistent than Chamberlain but the difference is very marginal.

Delivery
Both pitchers have a solid delivery. Buchholz has very repeatable motion and the steps he took in 2007 to solidify his delivery really show in regards to his statistical improvement. Chamberlain has the better delivery but has a little less consistency in this area.
Buchholz holds the edge here but again, the difference is marginal

Mechanics
Buchholz is smooth and under control when he throws. His mechanics are solid and doesn’t show flaws in his set up or motion. Chamberlain has a little improvement in regards to his mechanics before I would call his mechanics excellent. But he does have a very good start and has shown very good improvement over the course of the year. There isn’t much to complain about but when the pitchers are this close, you have to nit-pick.
Buchholz once again holds a small edge in mechanics.

Overall

Other Factors
Other factors include makeup and durability. These factors can go a long way in determining the likelihood of a pitcher becoming a Hall of Fame caliber pitcher or a star who occasionally made All-Star appearances.
Makeup
Buchholz has a good presence and mindset on the mound. He stays mentally tough when facing adverse conditions or situations. Chamberlain also has ice water running through his veins. Although this is a highly subjective matter, and both are very good, I have to pick a winner.
Chamberlain gets an edge in the narrowest of margins here.

Durability

Buchholz and Chamberlain both have ace written all over them. Both also have very, very good pitchers on their respective pitching staffs and won’t assume that role in 2008. This element is as important as their stuff and bears nearly as much weight. Buchholz has not had major injuries or durability issues. He needs to add some weight to fill out his frame which should help. He’ll be good for 200 innings a year but don’t expect him to go very far beyond that. Chamberlain has the potential to go beyond the 200 inning mark with ease. But, injuries have kept him to under 120 innings every year going back to high school. His injuries are not tied to major problems with his delivery nor were they structural injuries but instead were tied to his weight and body. He has worked hard since being drafted to keep his body in better condition. I am confident that this chapter of his career is over but there is a lingering concern.
Buchholz seemingly has less risk here and I give him the edge. It’s not a very big edge, but again, with two prospects of this nature, the little things add up.