Mound Talk

1. Jay Bruce, OF, AAA. Plain and simple, Bruce is a monster. He has virtually no faults. Combining plus-plus bat speed with an incredibly nice easy lofted swing, Bruce has proved he’s ready for the big show. He can hit for average and power. Defensively, Bruce has plenty of speed to play center field and a plus arm to go with it. The one negative there is to say about him is that he strikes out an awful lot. Over his 522 at-bats this year between three levels, Bruce struck out 135 times. That is something that should change. He’s ready for the bigs and shouldn’t disappoint.
2. Johnny Cueto, RHSP, AAA. (A full scouting report can be found here.Cueto spent most of the season in High-A before jumping to Triple-A for his last four starts. He is very poised on the mound and works well within himself. He has a fastball that sits in the 92-94 range. He has a nice slider and changeup to go with it. He predominantly uses the fastball. He has very good control but struggles locating pitches in the zone. He needs more time in the minors before he’s ready to dominate hitters at the big league level.
3. Joey Votto, 1B/LF, MLB. Votto is a very solid hitter. He has a great understanding of the strike zone and has good power to boot. He hits well gap to gap is an aggressive hitter. He has some speed and will be able to steal a few bases. He was worked out in left field this season and looks adequate defensively.
4. Homer Bailey, RHSP, MLB. Forget the post-injury debacle that Bailey endured in 2007. This guy has incredible stuff and he has done nothing to change that. His fastball is in the mid-90s, his curveball is devastating, and his cutter is going to break a lot of bats. Like last year, Bailey just needs to harness his stuff better. If he improves his changeup and control, he’s going to be an elite pitcher. His ranking at four is not in indication that he has fallen drastically, but more so that he failed to improve his control this year and other players dramatically improved. Of the top four, perhaps only Bruce has a higher ceiling.
5. Todd Frazier, SS, A. Frazier was a supplemental round pick in 2007 out of Rutgers. He rolled through Billings (Rookie) hitting .319/.409/.513 in 160 at-bats before being promoted to Low-A where in a mere 22 at-bats he hit .318/.375/.727. He has plus power potential and good strike zone judgment. His swing does need some work however. His swing is slow and he doesn’t get his hips and legs as into the pitch as he could. Defensively, Frazier will likely have to move to third base where his lack of quickness won’t hurt him as much.
6. Drew Stubbs, OF, A. Taken in the first round of the 2006 draft out of Texas, Stubbs first full-season of professional baseball was in the Midwest League where he hit .270/.364/.421. He added 29 doubles and 12 home runs with 23 stolen bases. The biggest thing to note about Stubbs is how raw he is. He has great power potential but needs refinement. He makes inconsistent contact and will go through periods where he is very strikeout happy. He is incredibly fast but suffered an injury to his foot this season slowing him down somewhat. Looking forward, Stubbs should be able to correct his offensive problems to be a 20-25 home run threat with 40 steals. Defensively, he’s very solid with range to cover a lot of territory and a very good arm to keep runners from advancing. Look for Stubbs to have a big time season next year in the Florida State League.
7. Devin Mesoraco, C, Rk. Taken in the first round of the 2007 draft out of high school, Mesoraco did not impress in his pro debut offensively. His bat speed and strike zone judgment are average and he struggles going to other way. However, he did have injuries to both thumbs during this season so judgment shall be reserved. Defensively however, he’s very solid. He has a plus-plus arm, good hands and excellent footwork.
8. Daniel Dorn, OF, AA. Dorn has a good understanding of the strike zone and compliments that by hitting to all fields. He doesn’t try to do too much with the ball, just put it in play. He boasts good gap power and as he completes his development, he should be able to add a few home runs.
9. Matt Maloney, LHSP, AAA. Maloney works on a high-80s fastball with good sink. He has a plus changeup and a potentially plus slider. He works low in the zone with excellent command. The knock is when he misses, batters don’t and he sees balls fly out of the park. Outside of that though, he’s fairly unhittable. His projection is that of a #4/#5 starter.
10. Tyler Pelland, LHRP, AAA. Pelland gets plenty of strikeouts and doesn’t walk many. That alone should be enough for him to succeed at the big league level as a reliever.
FLIER. Pedro Viola, LHRP, AA. Viola can be dominant at times and solid at others. He struck out 94 batters in 82.1 innings this year while walking 30. He gave up six hits per nine and over three levels posted a WHIP of 1.04. Basically, he does a good job of not letting hitters get on base. Viola has the potential to be a closer but needs to add some polish first.

The Reds have established themselves as one of the elite systems in all of baseball. With four prospects likely to fall in the Top 20 (including the number one prospect) and good depth after that, the Reds trail perhaps only the Tampa Bay Devil Rays in terms of overall quality. Look for big contribution in 2008 out of Bruce, Votto, Bailey and potentially Pelland at the big league level to help the Reds to an above .500 season.