Mound Talk

BACKGROUND AND STATS

Over the last four years the Detroit Tigers have drafted very well. Justin Verlander, Cameron Maybin, Andrew Miller and Rick Porcello all fell into their laps and they have been reaping the benefits from their willingness to improve their team through the draft by spending money. This is perhaps most apparent by looking at their first pick, the tenth overall, from 2005, Cameron Maybin. Though he was rated as a top five guy by Baseball America, concerns about signability caused him to slip to the tenth spot where he signed for a $2.65 million after a lengthy negotiation period. Incidentally, Maybin’s bonus was the lowest the Tigers have paid a first round picks since 2002. After signing in September of 2005, Maybin saw his first action in the Spring of 2006 at West Michigan of the Low-A, Midwest League. He hit .304/.382/.457 with 35 XBH in 445 plate appearances. His numbers were good and he saw his prospect stock improve. He started 2007 in High-A, Lakeland of the Florida State League. He hit .305/.393/.488 with 29 XBH in 349 plate appearances before being moved up to Double-A. After tearing through the Eastern League for a whole six games, Maybin was called up to the big leagues where he accumulated 49 at-bats in 24 games. He hit .208/.265/.473 at the major league level. Maybin, 20, is a lanky outfielder who stands at 6-foot-4, 200 pounds. He bats and throws right-handed. His natural position is centerfield but a move to the corner may be necessitated by other players in the system. He suffered a shoulder injury this summer but has fully recovered and it shouldn’t be a concern movign forward. Maybin is often described as athletic and raw, two very important themes with this five tool talent.

AT THE PLATE

Maybin has a lanky body with high hips and long arms. He has an enlarged strikezone because of his size which can be partially to blame for his high strikeout rates (26.1% in Low-A and 23.8% in High-A). With his lengthy arms, he also has a tendancy to elongate his swing. His pitch recognition could use work but it is improving though he still struggles with breaking pitches. His swing has natuarl lift which will become much more helpful when he refines the rest of his game. His arms are strong and he is able to generate plus-plus bat speed when he gets around on pitches. He has great hand-eye coordination and does a great job of keeping his whole body under control during the swing. Maybin has plus speed and uses it to his advantage both offensively and defensively with a seemingly effortless stride. He has stolen 52 of 65 bases over his minor league career and has three more in the big leagues. His speed allows him to turn singles into doubles, doubles into triples and perhaps most importantly, infield groundouts into infield singles. 29% of his hits in Double-A were infield hits. As a result, Maybin had an unually high BABIP. In Low-A it was .415 and in High-A it was .396. With his speed it is not unreasonable to expect a higher BABIP but a concern is raised when looking at his line drive percentage. In Low-A, Maybin had a line drive on just 9.2% of all balls in play. In High-A, that number climbed to 10.3%. By simple contrast, other 2005 first round outfielders selected out of high school racked up significantly higher LD% in 2007:

While this isn’t the whole story, it is significant in that it leads to the conclusion that Maybin is going to need to improve his skills in order to maintain his production against advanced pitching.

IN THE FIELD

Maybin should be used as a centerfielder on most teams but with Curtis Granderson already there, and Gorkys Hernandez coming up, a move to the corner may be necessary. This is no knock on Maybin who has Gold Glove potential with excellent range and a very strong arm. In fact, it is because of his arm, in large part, that he is being considered for a move.

INTANGIBLES AND THE FUTURE

Maybin has a strong work ethic and great makeup. He recognizes and works hard to correct his weaknesses. Maybin has incredible potential and greak tools. He has turned some of that into success already but there are questions about his ability to continue that trend. He will need to improve his pitch recognition, chase less pitches, cut down on strikeouts, take more walks and drive the ball more if he is to become the truely elite player his talent would suggest is possible. His potential line reads something like .305/.380/.560 and he is a viable candidate to go 30/30 at some point in his career. He has the potential to hit 40 home runs, though that is a far off ceiling. He should be able to steal 30 bases a season, given the opportunity to run. Maybin will head to the Arizona Fall League shortly and will be, according to Detroit Manager Jim Leyland, in the minors to start next season. Maybin should see time in the big leagues by late-2008.