Mound Talk

This year could be the year of the rookie third basemen. Three legitimate top 25 prospects in baseball will be taking their spots as major league third basemen this year and one more third will ascend to the bigs.

Alex Gordon is a Royal. That should raise a few red flags. But, Jason Bay is productive as a Pirate. The Royals insist he is going to start the season in Triple-A Omaha, but after a week or so of watching the Kansas City Royals, it will be hard to keep someone with a stick in the minors. Gordon is a .280 hitter in the making with 30+ home runs. If that’s not enough, he’s quick. 20 stolen bases isn’t out of the question, though not too likely to happen. The only question is: will he play? He’s certainly worth a draft pick, but not too high if you don’t know his status.

Ryan Braun is much like Alex Gordon as far as fantasy players are concerned in 2007. Braun as well is slated for a stop in Triple-A Nashville. Mark your calendars for April 26^th-April 29^th, Nashville visits Omaha. With Brewers 3B Cory Koskie battling post-concussion syndrome, Braun may be called upon to wield his mighty bat in Milwaukee before that date. When he does get called up, expect close to the same production from Braun as you would from Gordon. Both are capable of 90 runs and 90 rbi in a full season. Braun should have a slightly higher average and a few more stolen bases. 25-30 home runs in a full season can be expected. The likelihood of Braun being a 20/20 guy in 2007 is higher than for Gordon, but again, it all comes down to how much time he gets in the major leagues.

The third guy is the most likely to succeed. Andy LaRoche doesn’t have to fight for a roster spot. He doesn’t have to fight for playing time. The Dodgers will give him the reigns at the hot corner to start 2007. The 23 year old has a good swing and can hit for decent average and good power. A .290 average isn’t out of the question, nor is 25 home runs. With a little luck, and some help from his teammates, he could rack up 85 runs and 90 rbi. LaRoche is the least risky of all four third baseman mentioned this year and is definitely worth a pick, especially if you can snag another, mediocre third baseman in the middle rounds.

The last guy is Kevin Kouzmanoff. San Diego liked him enough to trade second baseman Josh Barfield for him earlier this off-season. Kouzmanoff is the oldest of the players on this list by far. At 25, he’s had the opportunity to show his stuff in the minors. He is a power hitter with fairly good contact skills. Despite the fact that he will start the season as a regular, he is the guy I’m least confident in his ability to make a significant impact. Optimistically, Kouzmanoff could hit north of .300 with 25-30 home runs. Realistically, expect around .275 with around 20 home runs. Won’t score a lot of runs but ought to knock plenty in.