Rookies07

Everyone is looking for that guy who’s going to come out of nowhere and make a team’s year. For the most part every successful team has to have one or two of these guys to succeed. For the 2006 Twins, it was Justin Morneau and the emergence of Francisco Liriano that made them a playoff caliber team. The same is true on your fantasy team. If you can find that guy, you can win your league. The difference between finishing 1st and 3rd may be as simple as having the foresight to draft Ryan Zimmerman in the 20th round last year. The value of drafting rookies (and young players in general) is tremendous. Most of the time these are high risk/high reward gambles. Hedging your bets with rookies and taking carefully weighted risks is the key to any good draft.

Finding breakout players and sleepers has almost become an obsession amongst fantasy junkies, and I’m no exception. Last season I was very high on five rookies: Matt Cain, Prince Fielder, Francisco Liriano, Ryan Zimmerman and Justin Verlander. Each of these players had good rookie seasons and good fantasy seasons. It was through their efforts that I was able to win two of three redraft roto leagues I played in. All were drafted after the 16th round which allowed me to draft better players at more scarce positions early on. In one particular league, I was able to pick up each of these players consecutively as listed in the last five rounds. While watching a rush on first baseman early in the draft, I quietly minded my business and filled in roster spots that I didn’t have a good rookie in mind for. While the big power hitting first basemen were all being swooped up, I was comfortable waiting for Prince Fielder later in the draft while scooping up other position players like Joe Mauer, Chase Utley and Jose Reyes. As everyone clamored to take pitchers around rounds 9-12, I was able to put together a solid outfield of Vernon Wells, Matt Holliday and Torii Hunter (more on this in another column). Though I had missed out on some pitchers I really wanted to take (Chris Young, Scott Kazmir and Joe Blanton) I had managed to enter the 15th round with a solid lineup:

C: Joe Mauer

1B: empty

2B: Chase Utley

3B: empty

SS: Jose Reyes

OF: Vernon Wells, Matt Holliday, Torii Hunter

UTIL: Bill Hall

Starting Pitchers: Carlos Zambrano, Ben Sheets, Chris Capuano, Ervin Santana

Relief Pitchers: Joe Nathan, Huston Street, Chad Cordero

I was very confident. If I could only manage to snag Prince Fielder and two pitchers I felt as though my team would run away with the championship. As my 15th selection came around a realized a Canuck named Justin Morneau hadn’t been taken. He was mine. He was my hedge bet. Most teams had already selected a second 1B so I wasn’t worried about Fielder being taken, but Morneau could be targeted by the not-so-wisely named ‘Hubert H. Humphrey Homer’ who had just drafted Michael Cuddyer, Carlos Silva and Brad Radke. Following my 16th round ultra bust of Willy Taveras (taken immediately before Garrett Atkins) I was able to take my fab five.

A few months, 42 waiver wire transactions, 7 trades and plenty of cursing, I had run away with the league with a final point total of 126 (second had 85). I won precisely because I was able to identify golden rookies. The 2006 rookie class was so stacked that it would be hard to imagine anyone winning without the benefit of one of the young guns. And the fact that these guys were ready to produce wasn’t the worlds best kept secret. But getting them was a huge benefit without a lot of cost. I had, to some extent, protected myself against Fielder not living up to his billing with Morneau. I had already selected several good pitchers with lots of upside so a miserable campaign from Liriano and company wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world. But what I got was more than expected and more than welcome.

2007 presents a class of rookies that are not quite at the same level of depth as 2006, but certainly there are players that can make a huge impact in 2007. Identifying them, drafting them and hedging your bet on them will make a difference for your fantasy team. As Spring Training progresses this list will be modified and mock drafts released that can serve as an indicator of where these players ought to be drafted.