Mound Talk

The Dodgers recently made comments regarding their top prospect Clayton Kershaw could break camp as their fifth starter. What intrigues me about this statement is that Kershaw doesn’t have 25 innings above Low-A. There are a few reasons this raises curiosity. First, his inexperience. Second, he has struggled in a few areas that will hurt him in the big leagues. Third, and most importantly, is how careful the Dodgers have been with their prospects recently.

But first, a little background on Kershaw. He was 19 last year throwing predominantly in the Midwest League. The lefty was taken with the seventh pick of the 2006 draft out of high school. He stands at six-foot-three and weighs 210 pounds. He delivers from a 3/4 arm angle. His fastball works in the upper-90s on occasion though he typical sits 94-96. It has good, late movement. His curveball works in the low-70s with sharp break in a 1-to-7 fashion. His changeup is better and shows a lot of potential.

In his pro debut with the GCL Dodgers, Kershaw fanned 54 against five walks. He was nothing short of dominant. In his second season, he spent 97 innings in Low-A but did not quite have the same statistical success. He still struck out a monster 134 batters, but this time he walked 50. The Dodgers aggressively moved him to Double-A for his final five starts. He struck out 29 in 24 innings but walked 17. He gave up four home runs in Double-A.

Clearly, Kershaw has not taken a conventional movement through the minors. His jump from Low-A to Double-A was fairly shocking and he struggled with the promotion a bit. He’s going to be 20 and two weeks on Opening Day. He’s clearly not in any rush to get to the “Show” right away.

But aside from the easy concerns, looking at where Kershaw has struggled sheds some light about what a 2008 in the bigs might hold for Kershaw. The most obvious is his walks. In Low-A he walked 12.1% and in Double-A he walked 15.9%. By comparison, no big leaguer

The second point that I wanted to address with respect to why he might not be ready is with his command. The results don’t necessarily reflect concern here. Kershaw’s numbers do not necessarily suggest a problem with command, until we look at his home run rate in Double-A. Now, it is important to note that this was a 24 inning sample, but it was a sample in which he gave up four home runs after giving up just five in nearly 100 innings in Low-A. Of course I’m not suggesting he’ll continue to give up home runs at that pace, but it is noteworthy that when he moved up, he struggled mightily last season.

Moving away from the stats and actually looking at his command, he’s shaky. The main reason is because he tends to lose balance with his shoulders during his delivery. This tends to be more prominent on his change and curves. He needs to focus on maintaining a consistent weight-balance during his delivery so he can repeat his delivery and improve his command.

No doubt Kershaw is an elite prospect. The video of his curveball that’s been circulating recently has helped fuel his prospect-hype and that was one heck of a pitch. But it’s his inconsistency that holds him back. His curveball, the one that is popping up everywhere, is the worst of his pitches. His fastball and change are superior pitches at the moment but, of course, all three show signs of plus-pitches.

Kershaw needs more time in the minors. He’s young and has clear elements to work on. In these terms, he’s an interesting comparison to Homer Bailey. Not in terms of skill set, pitch style or anything like that. But in the same way that Homer Bailey needed to work on a few things but had incredible stuff entering 2007, Kershaw has incredible stuff but still needs a little work in 2008. Kershaw’s problems with his command are correctable. His control and command should improve with increased coaching from the Dodgers minor league staff. But he’s far from ready to take the mound in the big leagues. When he’s proved against Double-A or Triple-A hitters that he can keep the ball in the park and not give up free passes, he’ll be ready to take Dodger Stadium by storm.

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Koby Schellenger can be reached by email at koby.schellenger@gmail.com