Mound Talk

Jim writes:
Im in a 5×5 rotissere NL only keeper 10 team league.  we are able to keep five players before the draft.  when you keep the player you have to sacrifice the a draft pick equating to where he was drafted last year minus 2. For example Matt Holliday was drafted in the fith round last year his keep value is 5. If i wanted to keep him i would have to give up my third round pick.

I have already decided on 3 of my keepers but the last two are a bit more difficult.
3 keepers i will definitely keep —-
Hanley Ramirez  - round to give up 13th
Adam Wainwright - round to give up 23rd
Carlos Quentin - round to give up 24th

Here’s where it becomes difficult to choose.

R Martin   give up 14th
D Bush   give up 14th
S Olsen give up 18th
C Duncan give up 16th
M Holliday give up 3rd
A Harang give up 10th

What 3 players would you keep out of the rest of these players?

MoundTalk.com: That is certainly an interesting twist you have on your league settings that forces players to make tougher, more layered decisions.

I think the biggest thing is to look for value with this desicsion. As any fantasy baseball move, you should consider the effect the cost has on your team and the value derived from the choice. That being said, I’d rule out Russell Martin because you will be able to upgrade at that position in the draft.

Since it’s an NL only league the talent pool is much more shallow. I think you have to keep Matt Holliday. The guy absolutely crushed the ball last year and if he puts up anything near 34 home runs again with a .300+ average, that puts him as a top 10 offensive producer and a top 5 outside of first base. Giving up a third round pick for him is a small price to pay.

I also think you have to keep Dave Bush. When you look at his periferals from last season you see a pitcher who’s ERA and WHIP varied drastically from what could have been expected. He’s a pretty solid pitcher and will have the added benefit of being the fourth starter on the Brewers staff. That means he ought to have a fresher bullpen to support him and pitch against worse opposing starters. He’s an above average strikeout option and rarely walks anyone.

The last spot comes down to Aaron Harang vs. Scott Olsen. While Olsen is a very talented young pitcher, Harang is a more established and has a pretty good track record. What Harang gives you vs. what Olsen gives you is a clear edge to Harang. But Olsen only costs an 18th round pick while Harang costs a 10th. Harang is a talented player who will be taken in the top half of a mixed draft (and obviously higher in an NL-only draft. Olsen is still a late pick. Though getting him for merely a 18th round pick of an NL-only draft is a great deal, the impact he has on your team is not going to be nearly as great. In this case you need to go with Harang. He’s going to give you more value for the cost and has a better chance of impacting your team significantly.

Go with Holliday, Bush and Harang. You’ll get great value with each of these guys have have a good group of guys to start your draft with.

Jay writes:
I am having a draft on Sunday for 5×5 roto keeper league that I was asked to be in.  Since I am new to the league and obviously have no keepers, then I will end up with the 2nd, 4th, and 13th picks in the first round.  How would you rank these guys who were not kept and availible to me?

Vlad, Manny, Hafner, Sizemore, Jeter, C. Lee, Carpentar, Ichiro, Rollins, Holliday, Bay, Tejada, D. Lee, A. Jones, Oswalt, Peavy, Halladay, Zambrano.

MoundTalk.com: I’d go with Vlad and to me Sizemore and Hafner are pretty equal. Then Manny. When he plays, he’s still the best right-handed hitter in the game. The only question will be does he play 120 games or 150?

Then I’d go with Holliday, Bay and Rollins. They are all excellent produces in most categories.

Jeter, Tejada, Ichiro and Lee are in the next tier. They all have their weaknesses and question marks.

I feel the same way as you about DLee. I’d rank him and Andruw Jones real close followed by Zambrano, Peavy, Oswalt and Halladay rounding it out. The pitchers are ranked lowest just because I think there are so many good pitchers in baseball right now.