Mound Talk

Let’s figure it out. The National League shortstops, as a collective whole, are incredible. The eight best guys could undoubtedly assemble a better team than any realNL team. I wonder if Jimmy Rollins can play catcher…anyway, in response to Jayson Starks simplistic and tailor made inaccurate analysis on ESPN.com, I’ll handicap the race for you. Following his model, we will take the five best, Jose Reyes, Jimmy Rollins,JJ Hardy, Hanley Ramirez and Edgar Renteria , and compare them in a more complicated, yet easy to follow, system. This system will more accurately reward players for their achievements and in a more reasonable and logical sense.

In each of the categories there will be 100 points awarded to the quantifiably best player. The remaining four players will be awarded points in relation to the leader. For example, If JJ Hardy led the group with 50 rbi, and Jose Reyes had 40, Hardy would get 100 points, Reyes would get 80. If Reyes had 49 he would get 98 points. This more accurately reflects how much better a player actually is in an objective way. After all, in Stark’s model, the two “runs produced” (a statistic that is equal torbi +runs-HR) that Reyes beats Hardy by gives him the same boost in the overall standings as any other lead which may be a bigger difference. Numbers will be rounded off to the nearest whole number.

Category 1: VORP

VORP is used to quantify offensive contribution. It is, in plainest terms, the value, quantified by runs, a player contributes over a theoretical replacement level player. Since they are all shortstops we do not need to worry that the level chosen is arbitrary or that it might unfairly penalize one player for having a better replacement level player.

1 — Reyes 24.7         100 points
2 — Ramirez 24.3       98 points
3 — Hardy 20.9         85 points
4 — Rollins 15.9         64 points
5 — Renteria 15.3       62 points

Now Reyes’ minimal lead in VORP is worth a 2% edge instead of 20% as in the Stark Model.

Category 2: 2*OBP+SLUG
OPS is an incorrect stat to use. This might not be the most accurate, but it’s close. Obviously the failures of it’s component parts are still prevalent but it’s fairly close. The 2*OBP was chosen as a simplistic estimation. Analysis suggests that an extra point of OBP is worth about two extra points of slugging towards a teams run scored total. It is, therefore, twice as important. Though this is still not a direct answer, it complimentsVORP and the other statistics in getting the best result.

1 — Ramirez 1.376      100 points
2 — Reyes 1.34          97 points
3 — Hardy 1.317         96 points
4 — Renteria 1.283      93 points
5 — Rollins 1.181         86 points

Category 3: Win Probability Added
WPA calculates each event in a game and assigns a value to it as to the affect it had on the outcome of the game. There are drawbacks to the metric, such as it unfairly rewards players for late inning performances. But it does help take a players individual contributions and separate them from the effects of his teammates.WPA is a zero-sum stat so during the course of a game, WPA of Team A plus WPA of Team B will equal zero. Each player has both a positive and negative line and WPA is the sum of these two. The biggest benefit of WPA is that it helps separate out “meaningful” contributions. A leadoff hit in the ninth inning of a tie game is significant while it is highly insignificant with a 9 run lead. WPA can be found at www.fangraphs.com.

1 — Hardy 1.39         100 points
2 — Renteria 1.27      91 points
3 — Rollins 0.68         49 points
4 — Reyes 0.64         46 points
5 — Ramirez 0.07       5 points

Category 4: Fielding Runs Above Replacement
How do you quantify defense? Systems are being created and used with coordinate plotting. These are useful, but somewhat difficult to utilize in this instance. I have chosen to go withFRAR as it is in a setting we are familiar with, runs, and is going to be roughly on par with the scoring system.

1 — Reyes 13            100 points
2 — Rollins 10            77 points
3 — Ramirez 5            38 points
4 — Hardy 4               31 points
5 — Renteria 1            8 points

The results are in and, in no surprising fashion, Jose Reyes is the winner.

1 — Reyes       343 points
2 — Hardy       312 points
3 — Rollins       276 points
4 — Renteria    254 points
5 — Ramirez     241 points

The race between Reyes and Hardy was close. Reyes has not had the impact on games that Hardy has but Hardy’s defense has not been as good as Reyes’. Surprisingly Ramirez is last on this list, but he hasn’t been “big” for his team and his defense leaves something to be desired. Jimmy Rollins, without finishing above third is the third best rated by this system and the elder statesman of the group, Renteria comes in fourth. Though this is not meant to be a system to prove anything, it is a snapshot at four statistics that pretty well encompass quantifiable baseball. As the season progresses I would imagine Hardy’s defense improves and his bat wanes. Reyes will have some opportunities to come up big and Ramirez will continue to hit the ball, if nothing else. Perhaps I’ll revisit this when two guys are left off the All-Star roster and are crying bloody murder.