Mound Talk

Chicks dig the long ball. It’s true. Fantasy guys do too. There isn’t any other single offensive action in baseball that helps a fantasy team more broadly and deeply than a home run. You’ll get one home run, one run, at least one rbi and you’ll help your average every time your guy hits one out of the park. Today we continue our series profiling the average roto league and look at how many home runs are needed in the average league. Again, this is based off a sampling of 600 Yahoo leagues.

Rank  HR
1.   269
2.   229
3.   225
4.   223
5.   220
6.   209
7.   203
8.   200
9.   189
10.  185
11.  171
12.  154

As in the past, we are seeing a trend that places 1 and 12 are further away from the pack than any others. This is due to the tendancy of some owners to either load up on one stat or “punt” it. But, once again, we see a major clumping from the rest of the pack. The difference here is in the spread. Where we saw a relatively small increase in runs could result in 9 more point in the overall standings, a relatively small increase in home runs does not increase your overall points in the same manner.

With nine offensive roster spots, 25 home runs per slot is the average to finish with 230 home runs. That ought to put a fantasy team in position to grab 10+ points. The problem is, there were exactly zero catchers with 25 home runs last season, three second baseman and two shortstops. What that means is the guys with big power (Ryan Howard, Albert Pujols, David Ortiz) have to carry the load for some of the positions that won’t hit as many. Unlike stolen bases, runs, rbi or batting average, it’s hard to build a team with too much power. Every home runs contributes to four categories, directly. The goal should not necessarily be to get 25 home runs per slot, as it is with runs or average, but more so to build a team with many power hitters. Big power hitters are consistently top fantasy producers without the negative implications of relying on 100% health as a speedster might.

Where we previously saw a very sensitive setting for runs scored and stolen bases, home runs is not as sensitive. The difference between 8th place and 2nd place is like the difference between Jeff Conine and Carlos Delgado. With that being said, it is important to look for big producers whenever possible at positions you’d expect power from (1B, 3B, OF). Pick up power when you can but adding a few home runs here and there will not make the difference that a few runs or stolen bases will.