Mound Talk

The average roto league required a lot of runs to win. As will be the trend with most of the categories, they are skewed to the top and bottom because teams will load up and excessively win the category. Runs is one of the more skewed categories. Here is the breakdown:

Finish	Runs
1	870
2	831
3	828
4	808
5	790
6	788
7	785
8	781
9	772
10	734
11	721
12	690

By the nature of runs, they are highly correlated to stolen bases and we’ll see the same distribution pattern with stolen bases. That said, runs presents a unique category in which to maximize your potential team points. With nine position players accounting for a team’s total contributors (although the “player” changes, the slot is constant) each position for the average league leader is racking up just under 100 runs.  Last year there were only 30 players who individually scored 100 runs or more. Thus, a premium is placed on these guys. What’s more is that 14 of them also had 20+ stolen bases, 12 had 100+ RBI, 22 had 20+ HR and 14 had a batting average over .300. What this means is that there are lots of guys who will get runs but also contribute in other categories. Grabbing David DeJesus late may be nice because he’ll come close or exceed the 100 run plateau, but he won’t help you in other categories. A guy like Hideki Matsui, while more expensive, will help you in two additional categories while providing a similar run total. While finding your runs, you will want to make sure they are “full” runs in that the player isn’t just limited to helping in runs.
So looking at the cumulative data, a target of 828 runs would be good enough, on average, for third place, or 10 points. That works out to 92 runs per slot on the season. Again, this is a lot as only 45 players scored 92+ runs last year. What this means is that you should be planning on some later targets who will be below the 92 run threshold but big time contributors elsewhere. These are guys like Jeff Francouer, Brad Hawpe, Chone Figgins and Josh Willingham who won’t be too big of a drag on your run total but also will help provide average numbers in other categories.

Notice the fairly large gab between lots 3-5 and how it tightens up after that. Making sure you can be sufficiently ahead of that grouping will allow you to trade off some of your “extra” runs to help in another category late in the season. 

Concluding Thoughts

Look for guys who will get a lot of runs and stolen bases. Players like David Ortiz are nice because they give you runs, RBIs and home runs but if you take a bunch of guys like this, you’ll be forced to take empty stolen base guys like Juan Pierre or Shane Victorino.

Target 92 runs per player. Try to work off that framework and fill in where necessary. 

There are a lot of players who will give you above-average production in four categories.  Not all of them are first rounders. Last year, David Ortiz, Magglio Ordonez, Chipper Jones, Chase Utley, Matt Holliday, Curtis Granderson, Hanley Ramirez, Alex Rodriguez and David Wright produced at the previously mentioned benchmarks in at least 4 categories including runs. These are the guys that will give your team a huge boost and put you in a position to trade away stats late in the year for what you need.

Runs are the easiest category to trade away without running the risk of hurting you too much because of the distribution pattern.