Mound Talk

Picks #9 & 10 today. If you haven’t read the complete mock draft, please do so as each piece is really just a part of the whole. Feel free to discuss this article here or send me an email koby.schellenger@moundtalk.com.

#9: Washington Nationals

Jim Bowden & Dana Brown have teamed up for the Nationals last three drafts. During that time, they have had good success in the draft. Last year they successfully bolstered a dead farm system with three extra selections. Their three drafts together have resulted in 48 picks in the first fifteen rounds. During that time they have taken 18 high school players. However, of their first five round picks (18 total), there have been 11 high school picks. Additionally, the Nats have been particularly inclined to take pitchers having drafted 26 & eight in the first five rounds. Bowden & Brown are likely to be looking for a college bat that is close or a high upside high school bat. I don’t think they will be entertaining any pitchers that are likely to be available to them. If the draft goes as I have it, the Nats will be focusing exclusively on position players with this selection.

The Nationals invested a lot in last years draft and have a reinvigorated farm club. Again, the best player available here is Eric Hosmer but his price tag may preclude the Nationals from taking him. Buster Posey & Kyle Skipworth will be heavily considered. Shooter Hunt is another candidate but given how heavy they have gone on pitching lately, I think they’ll be looking for a bat. High School Outfielder Aaron Hicks is also a guy who could be on the Nationals radar. He will be considered as both an outfielder & a right handed pitcher.

At this point in the draft, the elite players are certainly going to be gone but there will be a distinct separation in the best players available & the likely selections: $$. Teams are forced to make choices between paying more for a player like Hosmer or going for a more reasonable player with less talent. Further, teams will make selections based on upside versus safety. A good illustration of this is at catcher. As I’ve mentioned, Buster Posey does not have the upside to be a superstar catcher in the same category as Matt Wieters or Jeff Clement. But at the same time, he does not pose the risk of a player like Hank Conger or Jesus Montero.

Buster Posey is very athletic. He went to Florida State as a shortstop but moved behind the plate. He’s also thrown as a closer. Posey is a good hitter with good discipline. He doesn’t have tremendous home run power but will hit the ball hard to all fields. He’ll be a good hitting catcher, but not great. Defensively he has a good arm & moves well. Every time I’ve seen him I’ve been very impressed with his receiving skills. I like him a lot. He’ll need work behind the plate yet as he hasn’t spend a great deal of time there but if he can get signed will have short-season ball and hopefully get a chance to get out to Hawaii this winter for more action.

Kyle Skipworth is a high school catcher out of California. He is a left handed hitter & is very strong. His power is well above average however, I don’t know if he’ll be able to hit for average. He certainly has a chance to be a strong hitter for power & average but has work to do before he’s there. He has a very good arm & uses it well. Defensively he is behind where he should be. He doesn’t move all that well and particularly needs to improve his footwork. I don’t know if he’ll stick at catcher but his bat very good.

Washington Nationals
Likely Selections: Eric Hosmer, 1B, HS. Kyle Skipworth, C, HS. Buster Posey, C, College. Aaron Hicks, OF/RHP, HS.
Mound Talk Selection: Kyle Skipworth, C, High School.

While the Nationals might go with Posey instead of Skipworth, I went with the higher upside of Skipworth but won’t be surprised to see either one go first, or ahead of #9. It’s a good pick for a system that is loaded with pitching depth. Skipworth’s main developmental concern will be his defense. I would expect his bat to carry him pretty quickly. Skipworth is a big time upside prospect & could be a steal for the Nats at #9.

#10: Houston Astros

The Astros have been incredibly cheap in the draft. Hosmer is really not an option for them at all. Bobby Heck takes over as the new Scouting Director. He comes from the Milwaukee Brewers. His mark on the Brewers organization is characterized by power high school arms & power college bats. He personally scouted Ryan Braun, Jeremy Jeffress & Mark Rodgers, among others. General Manager Ed Wade had been with the Phillies in the same post from 1998-2005. Looking over his last four drafts there, Wade was not afraid to take high school players early and primarily looked for bats early. With 57 picks since 2002 in the first fifteen rounds, Wade took 16 high schoolers but seven came in his 17 picks in the first five rounds. Wade has gone heavy on bats taking just 25 pitchers in the first fifteen rounds.

I’d expect the Astros to be looking at a college bat or high school power arm here. That seems to fit the profile for both Ed Wade & Bobby Heck. Buster Posey would be a good pick here although their 2006 top pick, Max Sapp, is a catcher & the Astros have some depth already at that position. Shooter Hunt could be an option despite not fitting my thoughts on the Astros desires. There is no shortage of college bats in this draft but in my mock draft, teams have heavily gone in their favor leaving fairly slim pickings for the Astros. Prep arm Tim Melville is an option though he doesn’t quite fit the bill of a power arm. Aaron Hicks could get some consideration here as well.

Gerrit Cole, a righty out of a California High School, is another guy who could get some attention from the Astros. He’s 6-foot-3 and throws his fastball in the mid-90s though he has been reported in the 97-98 range. His fastball moves very well. He throws a slider that is inconsistent but has good movement. His changeup isn’t great, but very few high school pitchers have a developed change. He’s projectable & knows how to throw strikes. Those two things make him a very alluring prospect.

Houston Astros
Likely Selections: Buster Posey, C, College. Aaron Hicks, OF/RHP, HS. Gerrit Cole, RHP, HS. Tim Melville, RHP, HS.
Mound Talk Selection: Gerrit Cole, RHP, High School.

Cole may cost the Astros more than they would have liked but the Scott Boras-advisee is the kind of guy Ed Wade & Bobby Heck have shown an affinity for in the past. The Astros went for upside with this pick & I feel taking Cole here is a reach but the Astros won’t go for Eric Hosmer because of his bonus demands & will pass on the next best player available, Buster Posey, because it is a position of strength for them. This pick is the first pick of the draft that will have people surprised.