Mound Talk

#1: Tampa Bay RaysThe Tampa Bay then-Devil-now-just Rays have been on the clock since the end of last season. It had been a pretty solid conclusion that the Rays would take Vandy third baseman, Pedro Alvarez with the top pick. However, a broken hamate bone has put some doubt into the draft world about Alvarez in a Rays uniform. With General Manager Andrew Friedman at the helm with Scouting Director R.J. Harrison for the last two years, the Rays have selected twenty selections in the first ten rounds. Their top players include Evan Longoria, Desmond Jennings & David Price. Of those twenty picks, they have selected a college player 12 times & with all four of their first two round selections. They have predominantly leaned towards pitching in the first four rounds. Overall, their selections have been very split between the different position players & pitchers.Looking at the Rays in the 2008 Draft, they have several options to choose from. Five of the top players, strictly in terms of talent in this years draft are Pedro Alvarez, Tim Beckham, Aaron Crow, Brian Matusz & Eric Hosmer. Alvarez is a college 3B, Beckham a High School SS, Crow and Matusz are college pitchers (right- & left-handed respectively) & Hosmer is a high school 1B.Hosmer is likely not an option for the Rays because of his reported $7 million bonus demands. Crow & Matusz are both viable options as are Alvarez & Beckham. None of the three college players are leaps and bounds ahead of the others in terms of talent. Each carries some degree of risk whether it’s an injury or a developmental concern and therefore, I am inclined to think the Rays will go for the higher upside of Tim Beckham.

Beckham should be able to stay at short defensively. Everything I’ve read indicates he’s a very fluid defender with advanced footwork & speed. His arm grades out as above average & many are more impressed with his defense than his bat. Offensively, Beckham looks very relaxed and natural. He is quick and projects to have above-average power & contact ability.

Tampa Bay Rays
Likely Selections: Tim Beckham, SS, HS. Pedro Alvarez, 3B, College. Aaron Crow, RHP, College. Brian Matusz, LHP, College.
Mound Talk Selection: Tim Beckham, SS, High School

The selection helps the Rays as an organization. They have plenty of young talent across the board and the only position in the organization that really lacks talent or depth is catcher. Peter Gammons recently suggested the Rays may look at Buster Posey, a catcher from Florida State. Drafting from organizational need is something that is typically not done in the Major League Baseball Draft like it is in the NBA or NFL Drafts. Taking Tim Beckham is a great move for the Rays because it provides some insurance for Reid Brignac in the case that he really can’t hit advanced pitching or he can’t field the position well enough.

#2: Pittsburgh Pirates

Last year the Pirates passed on guys like Matt Wieters, Ross Detwiler, Matt LaPorta, Jarrod Parker and many more talented players in order to sign Clemson RHP Daniel Moskos for considerably less money. The Pirates will not be foolish enough to make the same mistake two drafts in a row.

Neal Huntington took over as GM at the end of the 2007 season. He had previously served as Special Assistant to the GM in Cleveland where over the last three drafts, the Indians have taken 32 college players in the first fifteen rounds against just 13 high school players. This dramatic difference is not just something Huntington has been apart of but also something Pirates Scouting Director Greg Smith embraced as Scouting Director of the Detroit Tigers. Smith’s last three seasons as Scouting Director for the Tigers (2002-2004) saw the Tigers draft 28 college players in the first 15 rounds against just 17 high schoolers. After the 2004 season, Smith was listed as a Scout for the Tigers. During these three seasons, the Tigers took just seven high school players in the first fifteen rounds. Both Huntington & Smith seem to have a deep background in systems that draft college players. Whether or not the two of them continue this trend is yet to be seen, but I’m guessing the Pirates are looking at a college player.

Looking at the top players left after the Rays select, Eric Hosmer leaps out as a guy to cross off. Ignoring that he’s a high school kid and I think the Pirates will be going college, his bonus demands are high & the Pirates are not likely to invest that much money in the draft unless they were truely blown away by the player. That leaves Vandy third baseman Pedro Alvarez, Mizzou righty Aaron Crow, San Diego lefty Brian Matusz.

I like Pedro Alvarez’ bat a lot & the Pirates have taken college righties with their top pick in each of the last two seasons (Daniel Moskos & Brad Lincoln). I imagine the Pirates are predominantly looking at Alvarez & Crow but there is room for someone to surge into their consciousness. If Alvarez demands a bonus in excess of $6 million, he might drop on the Pirates board. If Alvarez prices himself out of Pittsburgh, South Carolina masher Justin Smoak might land himself in Pittsburgh as a power hitting first baseman.

Pittsburgh Pirates
Likely Selections: Pedro Alvarez, 3B, College. Aaron Crow, RHP, College. Brian Matusz, LHP, College. Justin Smoak, 1B, College.
Mound Talk Selection: Justin Smoak, 1B, South Carolina

This selection shows the Pirates going for a cheaper bat who will have an impact at the big league level before long. While the Pirates will not be getting the best talent available, they will be getting a solid bat. Pirates fans won’t be happy but it’s a lot better than taking Daniel Moskos.