Mound Talk

The Brewers are 9-6 entering their sixth series of the season and second against the Reds. I wanted to offer a few comments on the team before this series started. As I’m sure anyone who has been reading the Brewers blog updates has found out, I’m extremely optimistic when it comes to the Brewers. So much so that I’ve toyed with the idea of having a “Reason For Hope” feature daily.

Entering the sixteenth game the Brewers are exceeding their Pythagorean Record by 0.7 games.

What’s most notable about the team from an offensive perspective is how mightily the team has struggled thus far. Of all players who are averaging more than 2.0 plate appearances per team game (nine players), only two have a batting average above .250. Until today, only two were above .230. Only three players have an OBP above .330 and only three players have a slugging average above .430. One player has an OPS+ greater than 100–Catcher Jason Kendall–and the team has an OPS+ of 93. The collective vital line is .244/.302/.398. Presuming any decline from Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun is negated by gains from the upgrade of Kendall over Johnny Estrada and Mike Cameron over Geoff Jenkins, the team should expect an overall line near .260/.330/.460. The Brewers are averaging 4.93 runs per game this year, even with their poor performance, relatively speaking. If they can add 30 points of on-base and 60 points of slugging, they should be able to boost their rpg by at least half a run. More importantly, even with their slumping offense, the Brewers have won nine of fifteen games. If that offense performed .5 runs better per game this year (+7.5 runs), their Pythagorean Record would stand at 9.03-5.97. Their season long projected wins would be 98.

Today’s “Reason For Hope” is the Crew has won despite a poor offense. For the Brewers to reach their .260/.330/.460 team line, they will get on base at a 33% rate and slug .462 for the rest of the season. In other words, offensively, the Brewers should get better. Much better.

Now turning to the pitching side of things, there’s a different story. Two things need to be addressed: The rotation and the bullpen.

The rotation has been short Yovani Gallardo. Even with his absence, the Brewers have held their own. Ben Sheets has an ERA+ of 342 entering tonight. Jeff Suppan has thrown 17.1 good innings. Manny Parra and Carlos Villanueva have been ok and Dave Bush has struggled. In terms of Win Probability Added, the rotation is collectively 0.01.
Pitcher    WPA
Sheets    0.87
Suppan    0.12
Parra    -0.14
Villa.    -0.20
Bush    -0.63

Sheets will come back down to Earth, Bush will leave the rotation and Gallardo will return. Let’s assume, for the sake of argument, that Gallardo is a very average pitcher who posts a WPA of 0.00 for the season. That’s 30 starts at 0.00 and zero starts of Dave Bush. Assuming he’s not AS bad as he’s been, let’s say his remaining starts WOULD have been 1/2 as bad. The Brewers are gaining 0.21 of Win Probability for every Gallardo start over Dave Bush (-0.63/3=-0.21). Now let’s also say that Sheets true WPA/game isn’t near 0.30 but is actually 0.20. The net result is still a gain of 0.11 WPA every five starts or 3.3 wins over the season.

If that confuses you, don’t worry. It’s all rooted in assumptions. The point is that Gallardo is an upgrade over Bush and the rotation is going to be better when he’s back in it.

Turning to the bullpen for a brief comment, the word to best describe our bullpen thus far is: ODD.

The $20,000,000 bullpen has not performed as such thus far. Additions David Riske, Salomon Torres and Guillermo Mota have all been positive WPA contributors while Derrick Turnbow and Eric Gagne have been drains on the Brewers chances of winning ballgames.

Most surprisingly however, is the fact that Brian Shouse has the highest WPA of all Brewers relievers in just 6.1 IP (of the bullpen’s 47.2 IP).

There isn’t much to say about the trending of the bullpen. With the arms the Crew has compiled, someone will be hot, someone will not. I don’t expect the bullpen to be an elite ‘pen, unless Eric Gagne figures it out but I also don’t expect them to be bad by any means.

Overall, five series in, the Crew looks good. Their .600 win percentage should go up…provided the offense hasn’t really taken a giant step backwards and Gallardo is really an improvement over Bush. (And the usual caveat’s apply…namely, Sheets stays healthy)

With that…go Crew! Sheets goes for (team) win #4!