Sunday, February 4th, 2007...9:16 pm

Rookie Pitchers

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There is no doubt that the rookie pitching class of 2006 was the best in years. Liriano, Verlander, Papelbon, Weaver, Billingsley, Cain and the Marlins, among others, all made positive contributions both to their major league clubs and fantasy teams. Owning one, or more, of these young guys was, in many cases, the determining factor in elevating a fantasy team in the final rankings. 2007 does not project to have the quality nor the quantity of pitchers make significant fantasy impacts that last year’s ultra-crop did. But there are a few guys to keep an eye on.

The obvious ‘rookie’ to consider is Diasuke Matsuzaka. The coveted prize from Japan landed in Boston this off-season after being posted by his Japanese team. The media surrounding Matsuzaka, and the mystery surrounding his famed “gyro-ball” will probably make him drafted earlier than he should be. At 26 years old, Matsuzaka should be in his prime. The Red Sox expect him to come in and be an effective ace-caliber pitcher. If Matsuzaka doesn’t get taken too early, he’s a high reward guy that might be worth a look.Though he barely qualifies as a rookie, Matt Garza will be an effective fantasy pitcher in 2007. He won’t be as effective as teammate Fransisco Liriano was last season, but Garza ought to be an effective #4 or #5 on your fantasy team. He isn’t as flashy and doesn’t have the ace potential that the other guys on this list have, but he’s definitely someone to consider for your fantasy team late in the draft.For all the Yankee apologists out there, Philip Hughes is the guy you’ve been waiting for. His electric stuff combined with his outstanding performance thus far have vaulted him to near mythological status among Yankees fans. In truth, he has some work to do. He also has a lot of potential. That means that if (read: when) a Yankees pitcher goes down with an injury, Hughes could get his chance to show his stuff in the Big Apple. Watch how things shake out in Spring Training and how the depth chart looks at the time of your fantasy draft, but I wouldn’t expect Hughes to be worth a roster spot, unless you have a deep bench and can afford to stash him away.

In much the same way as Hughes is someone to consider a la Jared Weaver, Homer Bailey deserves the same mention. Likely to start the season in Triple-A, Bailey is a top pitching prospect in baseball along with Hughes and should be looking at some playing time during the 2007 season. Watch your waiver priority if he’s not in your database to begin the season and if he is, be quick to check the Reds website for any injuries to starting pitchers and on Bailey’s progression in Triple-A.

Though he’s not as highly rated as Hughes and Bailey, Yovanni Gallardo is the next best pitching prospect in baseball. The Brewers second round gem has progressed nicely and if he gets a chance to pitch in the big leagues next season, he’ll definitely help your fantasy team. He’s a big time strikeout pitcher with good control and excellent stuff. The big question with Gallardo is how the depth chart fills out for the fifth starting spot in Milwaukee. With the addition of Jeff Suppan and Claudio Vargas, and the emergence of Carlos Villanueva and Zach Jackson, the Brewers might be inclined to let the young hurler mature in Triple-A next season. Monitor the situation carefully because Gallardo, Bailey and Hughes could all have Jerad Weaver type seasons this year.

Jason Hirsh is prime to take a spot in Colorado after being traded from Houston in the Jason Jennings trade. Like Garza, he isn’t a ‘wow’ pitcher like Gallardo, Bailey and Hughes. He’s good but doesn’t have quite the upside or the dominant potential that those guys possess. Hirsh will be a good guy to round out your rotation but won’t carry a staff. He’ll be a good late round pick.

Mike Pelfrey is the shot of youth that the New York Mets pitching staff desperately needs. The ninth overall pick from 2005 should get his shot to pitch in the big leagues this year. He has a good stuff including a plus fastball, good change and an average curve. He needs some work yet before he’s ready to dominate the National League, but should get the chance to prove himself this year in New York. He’s worth a draft pick late as another high upside guy.

5 Comments

  • Isn’t Matt Garza past rookie eligibility with 50 IP?

  • Matt Garza threw exactly 50 innings pitched in his major league career. To be rookie eligible a pitcher must have not thrown more than 50 innings in the major leagues. So, though Garza was close to exhausting his rookie status, he did not.

  • Per the MLB Official INFO page (http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/official_info/about_mlb/rules_regulations.jsp)……

    MLB Miscellany: Rules, regulations and statistics
    Determining rookie status:
    A player shall be considered a rookie unless, during a previous season or seasons, he has (a) exceeded 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched in the Major Leagues; or (b) accumulated more than 45 days on the active roster of a Major League club or clubs during the period of 25-player limit (excluding time in the military service and time on the disabled list).
    So he is under the ‘exceeded 50 innings pitched’.
    Has he exceeded the 45 days?
    Thanks,
    Wally

  • Garza was called up on August 8th and therefore also is under the 45 days on the active roster before the September 1st expanded roster time. He is as close as you can be really while still being a rookie, but if the Japanese players can be considered rookies I have no qualms calling Garza a rookie either.

  • Thanks for the info. I have a fantasy baseball decision that is based on this and the above helps a lot!

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