Mound Talk

For the Minnesota Twins the 2007 season was a disappointment. After winning the central division 4 out of the last 5 years they failed to make the playoffs. They struggled with the same issue that has plagued them for a few years, lack of offense. Their pitching staff was still one of the best in the American League but Santana had a “down” year and they did not have Francisco Liriano due to elbow surgery. Justin Morneau had a good season but slowed down near the end and Torii Hunter had his best offensive season of his career. Michael Cuddyer and Jason Bartlett were solid but the rest of the team was disappointing.

The Twins payroll was at $71.5 million for the 2007 season, the highest it has ever been. It is highly unlikely to see that number increase much, at least not until they move into their new ballpark in 2010. This will be a very important winter for the Twins and new GM Bill Smith. They have a team one year removed from the playoffs but could likely loose their star centerfielder who provided a lot of the offense. They do not have position players to bring up that can come close to filling Torii’s shoes offensively or defensively. They have a hole at third base and coming into the off-season their DH role. They traded for Craig Monroe to split time in the outfield with Jason Kubel and as the DH but he is no guarantee to even be on the team if he is unwilling to sign for less money this season than he made in 2007. They do have several young major league ready arms that could be offered in trades to acquire the young position players they need. There has been talk of trading Matt Garza to Tampa Bay for Delmon Young or BJ Upton but that will not fill their need at third base. The biggest chip and most talked about trade bait this winter has been Johan Santana. Trading him will signal a look to 2009 and having a young talented team for the new ballpark, but if they can get some offense they could compete in 2008 with Santana and Liriano making the best 1 2 punch in baseball(if Liriano comes back close to his 06 form).

Potential players leaving

Torii Hunter (OF) – $12 million
Lew Ford (OF) - $0.985 million
Rondell White (OF) - $2.5 million
Josh Rabe (OF) - $0.333 million
Matthew LeCroy (C) – $0.5 million
Carlos Silva (SP) - $4 million

The Twins will have $20.32 million coming off their books this winter with $7.3 million to spend after pay increases if they keep their payroll at the same level. The Twins have made offers to their two big free agents but both offers are below what the market will bear considering the lack of depth of starting pitching (Silva) and Hunter being the most coveted free agent centerfielder. There is still a chance the Twins bring back Hunter with a 5 year deal but it is unlikely given their budget constraints. Ford, Rabe and LeCroy will all be offered minor league deals with invitations to spring training although it is possible Ford could be offered a 1 year deal if they haven’t figured out their centerfielder by January.

Strengths

Pitching Staff – The Twins staff is anchored by the best pitcher in baseball (Santana) and one of the elite closers (Joe Nathan). Their bullpen was down in 2007 (they still ranked 5th) because of the struggles of Juan Rincon and Dennys Reyes and surgery to Jesse Crain but all 3 will be back and full strength in 2008. Pat Neshek nearly made the all-star team in his first full season in the majors and has become a tremendous setup man. Francisco Liriano is on track to start the season and if fully recovered gives the Twins the best top of the rotation in baseball. Matt Garza, Kevin Slowey, Boof Bonser, Nick Blackburn, Scott Baker and Glen Perkins will be competing to fill out the rotation in spring training.

Young Core Players – Even though the offense has not been very good the past few years they do a solid nucleolus to build around for the future. Joe Mauer (2006 batting champ), Justin Morneau (2006 MVP) and Michael Cuddyer give them a solid middle of the order that should continue to improve. Jason Bartlett has settled in and become a solid leadoff/2 hole guy and mixes in tremendous defense at shortstop.

Weaknesses

Offense – The offense ranked in the bottom lower half of the league in almost every category and stopped the Twins from being a playoff contender. This has been their issue throughout their playoff runs as they do not have the budget to sign a big name hitter and now their farm system is bare of any solid major league ready hitters. In order to improve their offense they will need to trade some of their young pitching, possibly to a team like Tampa Bay, Arizona or one of the Los Angeles teams to acquire the young hitters they need.

Off-season Priorities

Going into the winter their priorities were to resign Hunter, Silva and lock Santana up to a long term contract. It does not appear that any of these things will occur and now they need to look to fill the holes left behind. They do have several options, however, to fill these needs.

The loss of Silva will not hurt them as much as the loss of Hunter but it does leave them without a second veteran starting pitcher. They need one of their young guys, likely Baker or Bonser to step up and be the innings eater that Silva was. Liriano will likely be on pitch counts for most if not all of the season to protect his arm in the first year after Tommy John surgery. They may also target an older pitcher looking to rebound his career like they have done so (unsuccessfully) in the past.

It is rumored that Santana turned down the Twins contract extension offer and now they are beginning to gauge the market for him. As much as fans in Minnesota won’t want to see him leave, the amount of returning talent could set them up for 2009 and beyond. Any deal would have to bring in a major league ready third basemen, centerfielder and pitching prospects. Check back later for a list of possible deals that the Twins would be looking for.

If they can’t resign Hunter the Twins will look to the cheaper centerfield options on the market. If they make a trade for a centerfielder they will likely target Boston’s Coco Crisp, Kansas City’s David Dejesus or Tampa Bay’s B.J. Upton. If they target a free agent Corey Patterson or Kenny Lofton would be likely targets.

They need to fill the hole they have had at third base for several years. With no good candidates in the minor league system and a lack of quality in the free agent market makes a trade likely. They will kick the tires on Hank Blalock, Morgan Ensberg and possibly even Bill Hall and move him back to third after he spent 2007 playing in the outfield for the Brewers.