Mound Talk

The Rockies finished the season on one of the greatest runs in baseball history. They won 21 of their final 22 games going into the World Series but it all came to an end when they met the Red Sox and were swept. There are some that blame the layoff and others who say the Red Sox were just a superior team but it was a mix of both. As much talent as the Red Sox have the Rockies had a lineup who could match up well with the Red Sox, they disparity came in the pitching staff and while the Rockies have several good young arms they Red Sox more seasoned and just a little better. The season was a success however, as most expected them to be competitive but to finish 4th in the division not win the wild card.

Colorado’s 2007 payroll was at $54.5 million and with their World Series appearance they should be able to up the payroll to the $60-65 million area. Their team is loaded with young players and a majority of their payroll is paid to Todd Helton ($16.6 million). If they shop any of their players it will likely be Garrett Adkins (to make room for Ian Stewart) or Ryan Spilborghs as the outfield is solidified with Willy Taveras, Brad Hawpe and Matt Holiday. It will have to be a great deal for them to part with Adkins however, because they began to try Stewart out at second base near the end of the season. Adkins could be a good fit in New York if they are unable to find a third baseman but they will have to give up one of their pitchers (which they have stated they will not for a position player), an intriguing possibility would be Adkins for Robinson Cano.

Potential players leaving

Kaz Matsui (2B) – $1.5 million
Yorvit Torrealba (C) - $1.075 million
Josh Fogg (SP) - $3.625 million
Rodrigo Lopez (SP) - $4.325 million
Mark Redman (SP) – prorated minimum
Jeremy Affeldt (RP) - $1.25 million
Elmer Dessens (RP) – prorated minimum
LaTroy Hawkins (RP) – $3.5 million (Rockies declined 08 option of $3.75 million)
Matt Herges (RP) – $0.325 million
Jorge Julio (RP) – $3.6 million (Diamond backs paid $1 million)
Ramon Ortiz (RP) – $3.1 million (was acquired halfway through the season Twins paid $2 million)

The Rockies will have $19.5 million coming off their books going into 2008 with $7.5 million to spend after pay increases if they keep their payroll at the same level. They do not have much money to spend but they should be able to increase their payroll after the success they had in 2007. If they do increase their payroll, they will likely make a push to sign Holiday to a long term contract before he hits free agency after the 2008 season. The MVP candidate will not come cheaply but should be one of the guys they build around for the future. There is speculation that they have began to talk with former Rockies pitcher Jason Jennings (they traded Jennings the previous off-season to Houston for Taveras and pitching prospects Taylor Buchholz and Jason Hirsch. He would fill in nicely as their number 2.

Strengths

Offense – In a division that lacks offense the Rockies have one of the best offense’s in the National League. They have 3 legitimate power threats in Adkins, Holiday & Hawpe. They have speed in Taveras and solid hitters in Todd Helton & Troy Tulowitski. The one weak spot in their lineup is at catcher. Yorvit Torrealba had his moments but he was there to handle the pitching staff. Torrealba is likely gone because of a weak free agent class for catchers and a need around the league for a quality backstop.

Weaknesses

Bullpen – The Rockies have a good back end of their bullpen with Brian Fuentes Manny Corpas. The bullpen was good for them in 2007 but they may loose a majority of the pen to free agency. They will likely bring back Matt Herges but he overachieved in 2007 but he gives them a bulldog in tough spots. Jeremy Affeldt will be the biggest loss for the Rockies and will not easily be replaced. There has also been talk that they are shopping Brain Fuentes around which would be a major blow to the pen. If they go the free agent route to fill their bullpen holes they will likely be talking to another former Rockie closer Shawn Chacon.

Off-season Priorities

The biggest off-season priority for the Rockies should be locking Matt Holiday up to a long term deal. He is a great hitter and will power this offense for years to come. He will be pricy and they already have a big contract in Todd Helton that will be on the books for awhile, but Holiday will be worth the money and with their recent success they should have a little bit more spending room in the budget.

Finding help in the bullpen to replace all of the players leaving will be a difficult task as there will be several teams looking to upgrade their bullpen. Shawn Chacon had mixed success in Colorado but should be looked at to bring back. He would give them versatility as a starter, long reliever or backup closer. With their unique playing environment they have to be careful who they target because the thin air in Denver flattens out breaking balls and should disqualify them from going after guys who rely heavily on breaking pitches.

Colorado could be in on the trade market but with they do not have a pressing need to unload payroll or to fill a major hole in their roster. They may actively shop Brian Fuentes and Ryan Spilborghs and make available Garrett Adkins. Fuentes has drawn interest from Detroit, especially after the news that Joel Zumaya will miss the first part of the season. Spilborghs could be traded to the Twins to play center field if they loose Torii Hunter although he would not be the ideal candidate to play there. The White Sox could be another destination as they have an opening in their outfield. Adkins will only be moved if the Rockies get another big name player back. The Indians, Twins, Yankees, Angels, Astros, Blue Jays and possibly Red Sox could be players in a deal for Adkins with all of them having guys that could get the deal done.