Mound Talk

San Diego finished the year on a low note. They lost their lead in the wild card race and then lost the one game playoff to the Rockies after playing consistently well all season. It looked like they were going to win the playoff game, their ace and likely Cy Young winner Jake Peavy was starting but he had a poor outing. They were still in that game and were up with their future hall of fame closer on the mound and he imploded to loose the game. To go along with their collapse, their manager tore the ACL of arguably their best offensive player (Milton Bradley) trying to get him away from an umpire. It was a disappointing season to say the least.

San Diego went into the 2007 season with a $58 million payroll and could possibly go up to $65-70 million which would be inline with their spending the previous 3 seasons. This will not allow the Padres to go after any big name free agent hitters unless they are able to get someone for a 1 year contract, possibly Andrew Jones who could be trying to prove that last season was a fluke. This would only occur if Jones is not getting any offers near what he was expecting coming into 2007. They will likely need to find a new center fielder and could fill this through free agency with Jones or Torii Hunter or through trade, Coco Crisp. They do not have anyone in their farm system ready to step up to fill that position.

Potential players leaving

Marcus Giles (2B) - $3.75 million

Geoff Blum (2B) – $0.9 million

Michael Barrett (C) - $4.6 million (Received $1.5 million from Chicago)

Milton Bradley (OF) - $4 million (Received $1.36 million from Oakland)

Mike Cameron (OF) - $7 million

Brady Clark (OF) – prorated minimum

Rod Mackowiak (OF) - $2.75 million (Padres hold a $3.25 million option for 2008)

Brett Tomko (SP) - $4.1 million

Doug Brocail (RP) - $0.5 million

Todd Walker (2B) – owed $0.97 million for 2007; ended season with Oakland

Scott Strickland – owed $0.14 million for 2007

Russell Branyan – owed $1 million for 2007; ended season with St. Louis

The Padres have $26.85 million coming off the books and after payroll increases they will have $15 million if they keep their payroll even. This could allow them to sign Jones to a one year deal but that would leave a hole in the outfield and in the starting rotation. They will try to bring back Cameron and they have to be the favorites to get him but they will have competition from every team who looses in the Hunter bidding. As for the rest of their free agents to be they will likely try to bring back Tomko, Brocail and Bradley. Tomko will not bring much interest from other teams, Brocail was successful in San Diego and they would like to keep their bullpen intact, and Bradley has had too many issues with other clubs to draw much interest elsewhere (also his torn ACL will scare teams off). They will also need to consider signing a second baseman to have a backup if it does not appear that their top prospect, Matt Antonelli, is ready to make the jump from AA to the majors.

Strengths

Starting Rotation – Until Chris Young began to breakdown at the end of the year the Padres had two legitimate Cy Young candidates in him and Jake Peavy. Peavy had a tremendous season again, leading the league in strikeouts and will likely win the Cy Young. If Greg Maddux comes back for another season he gives them a solid number 3 or 4. The back end of their rotation is nothing special but with those two at the top it propels them to the top of their division.

Bullpen – Trevor Hoffman continues to anchor a bullpen that was lights out all season; the bullpen finished with a 3.01 ERA. Cla Meredith and Heath Bell were tremendous setup men and Josh Towers continues to find guys to plug into the bullpen successfully.

Weaknesses

Offense – Part of the Padres lack of offense can be attributed to the pitchers park they play in and the overall quality of the starters in the NL West but that is only part of the story. With only one legitimate power threat, Adrian Gonzalez, there isn’t much in the lineup to worry opposing pitchers. Brian Giles had a solid season but not the kind of season you base your offense on. In his limited playing time Milton Bradley gave the Padres the offensive spark they needed but he was often injured and ultimately tore his ACL while being pulled away from an umpire by his manager. Kevin Kouzmanoff began to hit near the end of the season and started to show the player they thought he could be when they traded for him last off-season.

Off-season Priorities

The Padres have two needs this off-season: Back end starting pitching and a power bat/center fielder. The Padres will have more than normal payroll flexibility this winter but don’t expect them to spend it on pitching. They already resigned Greg Maddux for the same amount as last season ($10 million) and he will fill in as their number 3. Following the Padres normal approach to filling out their starting rotation they will likely go after cheap veterans, look for them to target Bartolo Colon, Jon Lieber, Russ Ortiz and possibly bring back Tomko. A surprise pitcher they may kick the tires on could be Tom Glavine and reunite him with Greg Maddux.

Their other need is to bring power to their lineup. They may have an opening in center field if Cameron is not brought back and even if they bring back Bradley he will be out for the first part of the season. It would not be surprising to see them offer a one year contract to Andrew Jones so he could prove that last season was a fluke. Torii Hunter would make a lot of sense for them, he can cover the expansive outfield of PETCO, bring some pop to their lineup and he has been on playoff teams in Minnesota.

They might have to fill their catching spot if Barrett is not retained but this is not a major priority. They have Josh Bard to take the spot if needed but he is not the desirable choice. Rumors have stated that Jason Kendall may be targeted but his arm is not what it used to be and San Diego allowed an alarming high stolen base percentage. Yorvit Torrealba will draw some interest with what he did in Colorado this season but there is not much available on the free agent market for catchers.

The Padres farm system has been not been productive over the past few years. They have had a rash of injuries to their first round picks and have followed the Moneyball train of thought on drafting college players who do not have as much upside but could be ready quicker. This has not set up their system for long term success when the college players do not pan out. They do have a few attractive prospects but their overall depth is lacking. Padres Top 10 Prospects