Mound Talk

The Reds continued to promote players as Daniel Herrera moved up to Triple-A.
Josh Fields, the White Sox thrid base prospect has been placed on the DL for Triple-A.
Jason Botts has been assigned to Triple-A Oklahoma City.
Greg Reynolds will get a promotion to the bigs & start this Sunday.
Carlos Gonzalez has returned from the DL.
Kei Igawa will make a start for the New York Yankees.
Adam Lind will return to Triple-A.

A little Baker Bashing on a Wednesday is always fun. It’s particularly fun when Dusty Baker rides his star young pitcher into the ground. Edison Volquez is dominating the league ranking near the top in strikeouts & ERA. Though he has struggled with walks, as he has throughout his career, Volquez has been very effective. What I wanted to look at today is how Baker has been using Volquez.

Typically, having a pitcher throw more than 100 pitches in a game is not good. At least not good in the sense that it creates a higher risk of injury & has a negative impact on short-term future starts. Baseball Prospectus has done wonderful work on this subject. Buy a subscription & read their work. I promise it won’t be a bad investment. But keeping in mind that pitchers are at added risk when they throw more than 100 pitches, let’s look at Volquez’ last five starts and Baker’s in-game decisions.

There are a few important pieces of information to note first. Most importantly, the Reds bullpen isn’t great so squeezing a few more pitches out of Volquez in a tight game might be better than letting the bullpen come in for 4 full innings of work. Second, Baker needs to win now. The shelf life for a losing manager is short & especially when the Reds are a team that is built to compete this year & the future has some big question marks. With those two pieces of information in mind, let’s look at the last five Volquez starts.

Game 1: 112 Pitches, 5 innings, Reds leading 5-1
Volquez allowed just four hits through five innings and struck out seven but he did walk four batters. It was a good outting for him & I don’t think there is any evidence to suggest Baker mishandled him. In fact, Volquez went 1-2-3 on Ryan Theriot, Derrek Lee & Aramis Ramirez in the fifth so if anything, it might have given Baker credence to send him back out there.

Game 2: 105 pitches, 7 innings, Reds leading 7-1
Another good outting as Volquez gave up three hits & four walks in seven innings. He struck out seven, again & only gave up one run. He was obviously more effective & efficient in this game as he lasted two more innings with seven less pitches. With the lead the Reds had, there was no reason to run him back out there for the eighth & Baker made the right move pulling him when he did. However, it marks two straight games over 100 pitches for Volquez.

Game 3: 104 pitches, 7 innings, Reds leading 9-1
This was probably his best outting of the year allowing five hits & three walks in seven innings. He struck out ten. Baker pulled him for a pinch hitter in the eighth (Is Paul Bako really an upgrade?). The lead was sufficient & the opponent was the Giants. Again, doesn’t seem to be anything wrong here. It’s his third straight game with over 100 pitches but two were barely over 100 & a good starter needs to be durable.

Game 4: 100 pitches, 6 innings, Reds trailing 0-2
Through six innings, Volquez gave up four hits & two walks. He struck out nine but gave up a home run (his first of the year). He was pulled in the seventh for Jeremy Affeldt. I find this to be the curious outting for Volquez and Baker. Volquez had a bit of a shaky statistical sixth allowing two walks, a strikeout swinging & two grounders while facing Yunel Escobar, Chipper Jones, Mark Teixeira, Brian McCann & Jeff Francoeur. The previous inning he went 1-2-3 on the back end of the Braves lineup. The pitcher was due up in the eighth inning for the Reds & as mentioned, the Reds ‘pen isn’t that great. So the move to pull Volquez after just 100 pitches when he seemed to be doing pretty well based off the game log, is curious, to say the least.

Game 5: 118 pitches, 7 innings, Reds leading 9-0
Another very strong outting allowing four hits & six walks while fanning ten. A little background for you before diving into this. The Reds have used five relievers in the last two days. One was used on both days & for the sake of argument, I’ll consider him unavailable. The others pitched an inning or less and shouldn’t have been unavailable. The Reds certainly were not strapped for relievers & with a nine run lead, it was not an issue. Where Baker made a mistake was after the sixth inning he let Volquez go out for another inning of work with over 100 pitches thrown in an uneccesary situation.

Clearly this isn’t a blog post to rip Baker but one to show a trend developing with, yet another, Baker-managed young pitcher. Volquez owners beware!

Today’s Mock Draft Entry will be posted this evening. I have received plenty of emails about the Mock Draft & will be doing a Q&A-Mailbag-style entry this weekend. If you have any questions, send them to me at koby.schellenger@moundtalk.com. Thanks for reading!
In the mean time, enjoy another helping of Promotions, Demotions & Injuries with bonus commentary:

The Reds promoted Devin Mesoraco from XST to Low-A. Todd Frazier moves from Low-A to High-A & Chris Valaika leaves High-A for Double-A.

Jordan Zimmerman was promoted to Double-A. The Nationals pitcher, drafted in last years draft, has devastated competition in Vermont & Potomac & will now face stiffer Eastern League competition. Yesterday he threw 5.2 innings allowing four hits, including a home run, while walking three and fanning four. Of course this was only one start but it is encouraging that he held his own. Last year I wrote a complete scouting report on Zimmerman. He is starting to remind me of Ian Kennedy in the sense that he doesn’t have overwhelming stuff but knows how to use it well.

Speaking of Ian Kennedy, he struck out eight over 7.1 innings in Triple-A with no walks.

In the daily Alan Horne update, he seems to be throwing off a mound without discomfort, according to several blogs.

Anthony Reyes will start on Friday for Triple-A, Memphis.

Gaime Garcia was promoted to Triple-A, Memphis. He’s been very productive for Double-A, Springfield & has an outside chance of pitching in the bigs this year.

Warner Madrigal was promoted to Triple-A Oklahoma City. He’s been dominant as the closer for Texas’ Double-A affiliate in the Texas League.

Glen Perkins will be called up from Triple-A Rochester for the Twins. I expect he’ll make a start this weekend.

As always, this is part of a series. If you haven’t read the whole mock draft, please do so as the selections and some references are relevant in the context of the whole document.

#11: Texas Rangers

The Texas Rangers have a loaded system thanks to several big trades & plenty of draft picks last year. The influx of talent is predominantly in the low minors & full of high upside guys who are also big risks. Once again, the two best players available for this selection are high school first baseman, Eric Hosmer, & Florida State catcher Buster Posey. Given the depth of the Rangers catchers (Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Taylor Teagarden, Max Ramirez), they may shy away from Posey. However, Hosmer remains a possibility.

The Rangers are committed up up-the-middle guys under General Manager Jon Daniels. During his two drafts, the Rangers have been focused on high school players & pitchers. With his 33 picks in the first fifteen rounds he has selected 14 high school players & 18 pitchers. Of the high school players he has taken eight in the first five rounds (13 selections). These 13 selections break down as seven pitchers, one catcher, two shortstops, a first baseman (Chris Davis), a centerfielder & a third baseman. The lone exception was a power bat. Given his choice, Daniels would like to take a pitcher, shortstop, second baseman or centerfielder.

The Rangers are a very tricky team to figure out here. Given their tendancies, there are a lot of possibilities. As mentioned, Eric Hosmer presents the best talent but, of course, has tremendous bonus demands. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Rangers go with him at this point and spend the money. At the same time, there are plenty of options that fit their draft history better.

Miami (FL) second baseman Jemille Weeks would be an intriguing pick here. Though it would definitely be a stretch, he has been gaining a lot of steam lately and even had some people saying he is better than his brother (Rickie) when he came out of college. Weeks projects to be a better defender than his brother but without the same power. He has a tighter swing but slower hands. I’d guess Jemille will be able to hit for a good average but without the power. He may be a touch quicker.

High Scool outfielder Aaron Hicks is a very athletic centerfielder. He is raw & certainly needs to develop but he projects very well. He has good power potential, shows a lot at the plate in terms of contact but is raw & is very quick. He has a great arm & moves well. Hicks fits well into the mold the Rangers have created & would be a good pick for them here.

Shooter Hunt is another guy the Rangers will heavily consider if he’s available. He represents the best pitching prospect available in my mind & has a history with the Rangers. They selected Hunt with their selection in the 34th round of the 2005 draft. Though there is different personel at the top, this connection may bear somewhat in their selection.

Texas Rangers
Likely Selections: Eric Hosmer, 1B, HS. Jemille Weeks, 2B, College. Aaron Hicks, OF, HS. Shooter Hunt, RHP, College.
Mound Talk Selection: Eric Hosmer, 1B, High School

Ultimatley, I think if Hosmer is available, the Rangers will take him. It’s a good fit for an organization that has become loaded with pitchers. Hosmer is a big time power bat with a lot of potential. The Rangers will be very happy with him. This was a difficult selection to make because so many players make sense here. Buster Posey is one of the two best players available but organizational depth will move the Rangers off of him & with Daniels draft philosophy, Weeks & Hicks are great options. The Rangers have the history with Hunt as well. Faced with all these options, the Rangers have a difficult decision to make.

#12: Oakland Athletics

I’m sure everyone is at least familiar with Moneyball & I’m sure that most of you know that A’s General Manager Billy Beane does NOT select just high schoolers…just most of the time. With his last four drafts, Beane has selected 15 high schoolers in the first fifteen rounds (68 selections) & seven in the first five rounds (28 selections). However, the A’s have gone extremely heavy on pitchers including 40 of 68 top 15 round picks & 15 of 28 in the first five rounds. A pitcher makes sense here for Billy Beane.

Shooter Hunt is the best pitcher available & if he’s around, Beane will be tempted to snatch him up. Jemille Weeks would be be another option that fits nicely. Again, Buster Posey is the best college bat & with Hosmer being selected, the best position player available.
There’s a good change the A’s would pass on Posey in favor of Weeks at this spot. Again, I consider this to be a bit of a reach with the twelfth selection but worse picks have been made. I think of Weeks as more in the 16-20 range than the 11-15. However, if a team is looking for a middle infielder & feels Weeks is above average defensively, the pick here makes sense.

Georgia’s closer Josh Fields sneaks in as late consideration here. He would move quickly through the system, like current closer Huston Street, & could help a resurgent team in the very near future. Fields is a short righty & will likely fall on most draft boards because of that, but that never stopped Billy Beane from drafting anyone.

Oakland Athletics
Likely Selections: Jemille Weeks, 2B, College. Shooter Hunt, RHP, College. Buster Posey, C, College. Josh Fields, RHP, College.
Mound Talk Selection: Shooter Hunt, RHP, Tulane

Hunt has front line potential but also is pretty raw. He’ll need a lot of work to get his command down & be an effective pro pitcher but he certainly is talented. Hunt would join a talented group of A’s pitching prospects including Henry Rodriguez, Trevor Cahill, Fautino de los Santos & Craig Italiano to go with their very talented group of young hitters.